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Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Zwayer

Nurnberg

U S T S T

1–3

Full-time

Hoffenheim

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nurnberg Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

2,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

43%

86%

Both score Ø 65%

29%

100%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

29% Possession 71%

7 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 12

2 Blocked shots 1

9 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nurnberg 12. · Hoffenheim 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	+15	17
2	RB Leipzig	7	4	2	1	+7	14
3	M'gladbach	7	4	2	1	+6	14
4	Werder Bremen	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Hertha	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	1	3	+7	13
7	Bayern Munich	7	4	1	2	+4	13
8	Mainz	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Wolfsburg	7	2	3	2	-1	9
10	Augsburg	7	2	2	3	+1	8
11	Freiburg	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Nurnberg	7	2	2	3	-9	8
13	Hoffenheim	7	2	1	4	-1	7
14	Leverkusen	7	2	1	4	-6	7
15	Schalke 04	7	2	0	5	-4	6
16	Hannover	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Stuttgart	7	1	2	4	-7	5
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	1	2	5	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	Hertha	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	M'gladbach	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Werder Bremen	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Mainz	4	2	2	0	+2	8
7	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	1	1	+8	7
8	Nurnberg	3	2	1	0	+5	7
9	Bayern Munich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Wolfsburg	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Freiburg	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+2	4
13	Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Hannover	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	-2	4
16	Leverkusen	3	1	0	2	-3	3
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Schalke 04	3	1	0	2	-3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	2	0	1	+3	6
2	Werder Bremen	3	2	0	1	+1	6
3	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	-1	6
4	Dortmund	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	M'gladbach	4	1	2	1	+1	5
6	Hertha	4	1	2	1	+0	5
7	Wolfsburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	-1	4
9	RB Leipzig	3	1	1	1	-2	4
10	Leverkusen	4	1	1	2	-3	4
11	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Schalke 04	4	1	0	3	-1	3
13	Freiburg	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	0	2	2	-9	2
15	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Stuttgart	4	0	1	3	-5	1
17	Hannover	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Nurnberg	4	0	1	3	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.