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Bundesliga

Referee: Christian Dingert

Hoffenheim

U U S U T

2–1

Full-time

Nurnberg

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Nurnberg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,0

1,8

Scored

2,3

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 21%

33%

Points per game

1,4

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

71%

42%

Both score Ø 67%

88%

46%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

64% Possession 36%

16 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 10. · Nurnberg 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	25	18	3	4	+35	57
2	Dortmund	25	17	6	2	+33	57
3	RB Leipzig	25	13	7	5	+23	46
4	M'gladbach	25	14	4	7	+14	46
5	Ein Frankfurt	24	11	7	6	+17	40
6	Leverkusen	24	12	3	9	+8	39
7	Wolfsburg	25	11	6	8	+2	39
8	Werder Bremen	25	9	9	7	+6	36
9	Hertha	25	9	8	8	+2	35
10	Hoffenheim	24	8	10	6	+11	34
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	24	9	4	11	-11	31
12	Freiburg	25	7	9	9	-5	30
13	Mainz	25	8	6	11	-12	30
14	Schalke 04	25	6	5	14	-16	23
15	Augsburg	25	5	7	13	-12	22
16	Stuttgart	25	5	4	16	-30	19
17	Hannover	24	3	5	16	-34	14
18	Nurnberg	24	2	7	15	-31	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	13	11	2	0	+25	35
2	Bayern Munich	12	8	3	1	+17	27
3	M'gladbach	12	9	0	3	+12	27
4	RB Leipzig	13	7	5	1	+17	26
5	Leverkusen	12	7	1	4	+4	22
6	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	3	3	+11	21
7	Werder Bremen	13	5	5	3	+5	20
8	Freiburg	13	5	5	3	+5	20
9	Hertha	12	5	5	2	+3	20
10	Mainz	13	5	4	4	+0	19
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	6	0	6	-1	18
12	Hoffenheim	12	4	5	3	+6	17
13	Wolfsburg	12	4	4	4	-1	16
14	Stuttgart	12	4	2	6	-8	14
15	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	+1	13
16	Schalke 04	12	4	1	7	-7	13
17	Nurnberg	13	2	5	6	-5	11
18	Hannover	12	3	1	8	-12	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	0	3	+18	30
2	Wolfsburg	13	7	2	4	+3	23
3	Dortmund	12	6	4	2	+8	22
4	RB Leipzig	12	6	2	4	+6	20
5	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	4	3	+6	19
6	M'gladbach	13	5	4	4	+2	19
7	Hoffenheim	12	4	5	3	+5	17
8	Leverkusen	12	5	2	5	+4	17
9	Werder Bremen	12	4	4	4	+1	16
10	Hertha	13	4	3	6	-1	15
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	3	4	5	-10	13
12	Mainz	12	3	2	7	-12	11
13	Schalke 04	13	2	4	7	-9	10
14	Freiburg	12	2	4	6	-10	10
15	Augsburg	13	2	3	8	-13	9
16	Stuttgart	13	1	2	10	-22	5
17	Hannover	12	0	4	8	-22	4
18	Nurnberg	11	0	2	9	-26	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.