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Championship

Referee: R Madley

Ipswich

T T T U U

1–1

Full-time

Southampton

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ipswich Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,64 xG 0,75

50% Possession 50%

14 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ipswich 16. · Southampton 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.3	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.6	6
3	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.8	6
4	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+3	-1.2	4
5	Coventry	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.8	4
6	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
7	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
8	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
9	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
10	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.8	3
11	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
12	Watford	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.1	3
13	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.4	3
14	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
15	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.7	3
16	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
17	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
18	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.5	1
19	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
20	Wrexham	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.6	0
21	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.0	0
22	Derby	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0
23	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.2	0
24	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
2	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
3	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
4	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
5	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
6	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
7	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
8	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
9	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
10	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
11	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	Coventry	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
13	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
14	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
15	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
16	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
17	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
18	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
19	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
20	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-3	+1.0	0
21	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.4	0
22	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	-1.0	3
2	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.4	3
3	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.6	3
4	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
5	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
6	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
7	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
8	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
9	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
10	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
11	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
12	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
13	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
14	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
15	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
16	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
17	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
18	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
19	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
20	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
21	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
22	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.