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Premier League

Referee: D Bond

Southampton

U T T U T

1–2

Full-time

Arsenal

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

0,3

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 28%

51%

Points per game

0,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

59%

43%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

57%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

2,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-1,6

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,62 xG 2,39

38% Possession 62%

7 Shots 23

2 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 10

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 20. · Arsenal 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	37	25	8	4	+45	+44.5	83
2	Arsenal	37	19	14	4	+34	+24.7	71
3	Man City	37	20	8	9	+26	+18.9	68
4	Newcastle	37	20	6	11	+22	+19.0	66
5	Chelsea	37	19	9	9	+20	+21.2	66
6	Aston Villa	37	19	9	9	+9	+9.3	66
7	Nott'm Forest	37	19	8	10	+13	-3.5	65
8	Brighton	37	15	13	9	+4	+4.0	58
9	Brentford	37	16	7	14	+9	+3.6	55
10	Fulham	37	15	9	13	+2	+3.0	54
11	Bournemouth	37	14	11	12	+10	+14.1	53
12	Crystal Palace	37	13	13	11	+0	+11.7	52
13	Everton	37	10	15	12	-3	-4.2	45
14	Wolves	37	12	5	20	-15	-13.7	41
15	West Ham	37	10	10	17	-18	-12.5	40
16	Man United	37	10	9	18	-12	-4.5	39
17	Tottenham	37	11	5	21	+2	-4.6	38
18	Leicester	37	6	7	24	-45	-39.3	25
19	Ipswich	37	4	10	23	-44	-39.7	22
20	Southampton	37	2	6	29	-59	-52.1	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	3	1	+26	+22.5	45
2	Man City	19	13	3	3	+20	+15.5	42
3	Chelsea	19	12	5	2	+17	+19.1	41
4	Aston Villa	19	11	7	1	+14	+15.5	40
5	Arsenal	19	11	6	2	+18	+15.7	39
6	Newcastle	18	12	2	4	+21	+10.8	38
7	Nott'm Forest	18	9	5	4	+11	+3.4	32
8	Brighton	19	8	8	3	+4	+5.5	32
9	Brentford	19	9	4	6	+5	+7.5	31
10	Fulham	18	7	5	6	-1	+0.4	26
11	Bournemouth	18	7	4	7	+5	+7.8	25
12	Crystal Palace	19	6	7	6	-2	+8.2	25
13	Everton	19	5	9	5	+3	+0.7	24
14	Tottenham	18	6	3	9	+3	-0.5	21
15	Man United	18	6	3	9	-7	+1.4	21
16	Wolves	18	6	2	10	-5	-5.4	20
17	West Ham	19	5	5	9	-11	-9.1	20
18	Leicester	19	4	3	12	-19	-16.4	15
19	Ipswich	18	1	4	13	-28	-16.8	7
20	Southampton	18	1	3	14	-33	-28.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	11	5	3	+19	+22.0	38
2	Nott'm Forest	19	10	3	6	+2	-7.0	33
3	Arsenal	18	8	8	2	+16	+9.0	32
4	Bournemouth	19	7	7	5	+5	+6.4	28
5	Fulham	19	8	4	7	+3	+2.6	28
6	Newcastle	19	8	4	7	+1	+8.2	28
7	Crystal Palace	18	7	6	5	+2	+3.5	27
8	Man City	18	7	5	6	+6	+3.4	26
9	Brighton	18	7	5	6	+0	-1.4	26
10	Aston Villa	18	8	2	8	-5	-6.2	26
11	Chelsea	18	7	4	7	+3	+2.2	25
12	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+4	-3.9	24
13	Everton	18	5	6	7	-6	-4.9	21
14	Wolves	19	6	3	10	-10	-8.3	21
15	West Ham	18	5	5	8	-7	-3.4	20
16	Man United	19	4	6	9	-5	-5.9	18
17	Tottenham	19	5	2	12	-1	-4.0	17
18	Ipswich	19	3	6	10	-16	-22.9	15
19	Leicester	18	2	4	12	-26	-22.9	10
20	Southampton	19	1	3	15	-26	-23.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.