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Premier League

Referee: T Harrington

Brentford

S S T U T

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

3,5

1,5

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

0,0

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

3,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,21 xG 1,19

24% Possession 76%

9 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 17. · Aston Villa 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.9	6
2	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.9	4
3	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.2	3
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
5	Man City	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.4	3
6	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
7	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
8	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
9	Brighton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
10	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
11	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
12	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
13	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
14	Man United	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
15	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
16	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
17	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
18	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.4	0
19	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.9	0
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-7	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.4	3
2	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.2	3
3	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
4	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.3	3
6	Brighton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
7	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
8	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
9	Man United	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
10	Man City	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
11	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.0	0
12	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.0	3
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.9	3
3	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
4	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
5	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
6	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
7	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
8	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
9	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
10	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
11	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.4	0
12	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.