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Primeira Liga

Referee: A Rodrigues

Benfica

T S S S U

3–0

Full-time

Tondela

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

0,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

1,0

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,01 xG 0,40

66% Possession 34%

21 Shots 9

12 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

13 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 6. · Tondela 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+11	+7.0	9
2	Moreirense	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.1	9
3	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.3	6
4	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.6	6
5	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.6	6
6	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
7	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
8	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
9	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.4	3
10	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-4	-2.7	3
11	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
12	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
13	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
14	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.3	1
15	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	+1.0	0
16	AVS	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.2	0
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.5	0
18	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.2	6
2	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+6	+2.6	3
3	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.7	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.1	3
5	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
6	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.0	3
7	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
8	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
9	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
10	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
11	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
12	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
13	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
14	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.4	0
15	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
16	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.9	0
17	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.4	6
2	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.9	3
3	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
4	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
5	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
6	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
7	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
8	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
9	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
10	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
11	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
12	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
13	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.0	0
14	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
15	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0
16	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.4	0
17	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-6	-2.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.