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Ekstraklasa

Referee: K Arys

Lech Poznan

S T T U S

2–1

Full-time

Stal Mielec

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lech Poznan Stal Mielec

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 6/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

38%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

33%

38%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,97 xG 0,74

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lech Poznan 8. · Stal Mielec 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	9	6	1	2	+7	+1.1	19
2	Jagiellonia	8	5	1	2	+5	+3.8	16
3	Legia	6	4	2	0	+9	-0.2	14
4	Rakow	6	4	1	1	+7	+4.4	13
5	Zaglebie	8	4	1	3	-1	+1.0	13
6	Stal Mielec	8	3	3	2	+3	-2.8	12
7	Pogon Szczecin	8	4	0	4	+2	+4.4	12
8	Lech Poznan	6	3	2	1	+3	-1.4	11
9	Radomiak Radom	9	3	2	4	-1	+0.5	11
10	Widzew Lodz	9	3	2	4	-2	-2.3	11
11	Cracovia	8	2	4	2	-4	+0.2	10
12	Warta Poznan	8	2	3	3	+0	+0.9	9
13	Piast Gliwice	9	1	6	2	-1	+7.8	9
14	Gornik Zabrze	8	2	3	3	-5	-6.4	9
15	Puszcza	9	2	2	5	-7	-7.4	8
16	LKS Lodz	9	2	1	6	-8	–	7
17	Korona Kielce	8	1	3	4	-3	-1.8	6
18	Ruch Chorzow	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	5	4	1	0	+8	+4.4	13
2	Legia	4	4	0	0	+9	+2.0	12
3	Jagiellonia	4	4	0	0	+8	+5.7	12
4	Stal Mielec	5	3	2	0	+6	-1.4	11
5	Zaglebie	4	3	1	0	+3	+1.5	10
6	Slask Wroclaw	4	3	0	1	+3	+1.6	9
7	Widzew Lodz	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.2	9
8	LKS Lodz	4	2	1	1	+0	–	7
9	Puszcza	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.4	7
10	Pogon Szczecin	4	2	0	2	-1	+6.0	6
11	Korona Kielce	4	1	2	1	+1	+2.1	5
12	Radomiak Radom	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.1	5
13	Piast Gliwice	4	1	2	1	+0	+5.8	5
14	Warta Poznan	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.7	5
15	Gornik Zabrze	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.5	5
16	Cracovia	4	1	2	1	-3	-0.6	5
17	Lech Poznan	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.0	4
18	Ruch Chorzow	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	5	3	1	1	+4	-0.5	10
2	Lech Poznan	4	2	1	1	+1	-2.4	7
3	Pogon Szczecin	4	2	0	2	+3	-1.6	6
4	Radomiak Radom	5	2	0	3	-1	+0.4	6
5	Cracovia	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.8	5
6	Warta Poznan	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.2	4
7	Piast Gliwice	5	0	4	1	-1	+1.9	4
8	Jagiellonia	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.9	4
9	Gornik Zabrze	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.8	4
10	Zaglebie	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.6	3
11	Legia	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
12	Widzew Lodz	5	0	2	3	-4	-3.5	2
13	Ruch Chorzow	5	0	2	3	-5	-1.5	2
14	Stal Mielec	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.4	1
15	Korona Kielce	4	0	1	3	-4	-3.9	1
16	Puszcza	5	0	1	4	-7	-6.1	1
17	Rakow	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
18	LKS Lodz	5	0	0	5	-8	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.