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Serie A

Referee: R Abisso

Lazio

T T S T U

1–1

Full-time

Monza

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,04 xG 1,19

49% Possession 51%

8 Shots 16

1 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 16. · Monza 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	4	0	0	+12	+7.1	12
2	Milan	5	4	0	1	+3	+2.1	12
3	Lecce	5	3	2	0	+4	-1.2	11
4	Juventus	5	3	1	1	+5	+4.9	10
5	Frosinone	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.2	8
6	Napoli	4	2	1	1	+3	+4.4	7
7	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.6	7
8	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.1	7
9	Verona	5	2	1	2	-1	-2.6	7
10	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+3	+2.3	6
11	Sassuolo	5	2	0	3	-2	-4.3	6
12	Bologna	4	1	2	1	-1	+1.9	5
13	Roma	4	1	1	2	+5	+3.8	4
14	Monza	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.5	4
15	Genoa	5	1	1	3	-4	-2.3	4
16	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.4	3
17	Udinese	4	0	3	1	-3	-1.6	3
18	Salernitana	5	0	3	2	-5	-3.5	3
19	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.8	2
20	Empoli	4	0	0	4	-12	-5.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+10	+6.9	9
2	Lecce	3	3	0	0	+4	+1.2	9
3	Milan	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.9	6
4	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.6	6
5	Frosinone	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.0	6
6	Roma	3	1	1	1	+6	+3.0	4
7	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.2	4
8	Monza	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
9	Fiorentina	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
10	Verona	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.0	4
11	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
12	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
13	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+4.0	3
14	Bologna	2	1	0	1	-1	+2.0	3
15	Salernitana	3	0	2	1	-3	-1.0	2
16	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.6	1
17	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.5	1
18	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.0	1
19	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.8	6
2	Milan	3	2	0	1	-1	-0.8	6
3	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
4	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	+0	+1.4	3
6	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
7	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.6	3
8	Genoa	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.7	3
9	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.3	3
10	Verona	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.6	3
11	Lecce	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.4	2
12	Bologna	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
13	Frosinone	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
14	Udinese	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
15	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.4	1
16	Salernitana	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.5	1
17	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
18	Sassuolo	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.9	0
19	Monza	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.8	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-9	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.