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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero Lopez

Barcelona

S S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Celta

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

3,0

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

80%

20%

Points per game

2,6

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

60%

20%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

3,4

2,2

Scored

2,6

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,59 xG 1,54

74% Possession 26%

15 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 3. · Celta 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	6	5	1	0	+9	+3.3	16
2	Real Madrid	5	5	0	0	+7	+4.1	15
3	Barcelona	5	4	1	0	+9	+7.3	13
4	Ath Bilbao	6	4	1	1	+7	+5.6	13
5	Valencia	5	3	0	2	+3	+2.4	9
6	Vallecano	5	3	0	2	-2	+1.0	9
7	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+6	+2.9	7
8	Osasuna	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.7	7
9	Cadiz	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.4	7
10	Getafe	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.1	7
11	Betis	5	2	1	2	-5	-3.9	7
12	Sociedad	5	1	3	1	+1	+0.7	6
13	Villarreal	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.2	6
14	Alaves	6	2	0	4	-4	-2.7	6
15	Mallorca	6	1	2	3	-3	-1.9	5
16	Sevilla	5	1	1	3	-2	-1.5	4
17	Celta	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.6	4
18	Granada	5	1	0	4	-7	-6.3	3
19	Las Palmas	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.5	2
20	Almeria	5	0	1	4	-6	-0.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.1	9
2	Cadiz	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
3	Getafe	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.0	7
4	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+7	+3.9	6
5	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+3	+4.5	6
6	Valencia	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.6	6
7	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.8	6
8	Alaves	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.2	6
9	Sociedad	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.0	5
10	Betis	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
11	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
12	Villarreal	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.0	3
13	Sevilla	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
14	Granada	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.3	3
15	Vallecano	2	1	0	1	-5	-1.0	3
16	Las Palmas	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
17	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
18	Osasuna	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.9	1
19	Celta	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.5	0
20	Almeria	3	0	0	3	-5	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.3	9
2	Ath Bilbao	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.1	7
3	Girona	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.2	7
4	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.4	7
5	Vallecano	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.0	6
6	Osasuna	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.2	6
7	Ath Madrid	3	1	1	1	+4	+1.5	4
8	Celta	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.0	4
9	Mallorca	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.1	4
10	Valencia	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
11	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.2	3
12	Betis	3	1	0	2	-6	-3.9	3
13	Sevilla	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.9	1
14	Almeria	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
15	Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
16	Las Palmas	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.7	0
17	Granada	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0
18	Getafe	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0
19	Alaves	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.9	0
20	Cadiz	2	0	0	2	-5	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.