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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Stoke

U T T T S

0–0

Full-time

Watford

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 27%

25%

29%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

67%

63%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

58%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

2,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%

11 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 6

5 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 19. · Watford 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	24	21	2	1	+52	65
2	Man United	24	16	5	3	+33	53
3	Liverpool	25	14	8	3	+28	50
4	Chelsea	25	15	5	5	+26	50
5	Tottenham	24	13	6	5	+25	45
6	Arsenal	25	12	6	7	+12	42
7	Burnley	25	9	8	8	-2	35
8	Leicester	25	9	7	9	+3	34
9	Everton	25	8	7	10	-12	31
10	Bournemouth	25	7	7	11	-8	28
11	West Ham	25	6	9	10	-12	27
12	Watford	24	7	5	12	-11	26
13	Crystal Palace	25	6	8	11	-15	26
14	Newcastle	25	6	6	13	-12	24
15	Brighton	25	5	9	11	-16	24
16	Huddersfield	25	6	6	13	-25	24
17	Southampton	25	4	11	10	-11	23
18	Swansea	25	6	5	14	-18	23
19	Stoke	24	6	5	13	-25	23
20	West Brom	24	3	11	10	-12	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	11	1	0	+33	34
2	Man United	12	9	2	1	+22	29
3	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+18	29
4	Liverpool	12	7	5	0	+18	26
5	Chelsea	13	8	2	3	+11	26
6	Tottenham	12	7	4	1	+17	25
7	Everton	13	7	2	4	+3	23
8	Leicester	12	6	2	4	+4	20
9	Burnley	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	Stoke	12	5	2	5	-5	17
11	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-3	16
12	West Ham	12	4	4	4	-3	16
13	Huddersfield	13	4	4	5	-8	16
14	Bournemouth	12	4	3	5	-2	15
15	Southampton	14	3	6	5	-3	15
16	Brighton	12	3	6	3	-6	15
17	Swansea	13	4	2	7	-8	14
18	West Brom	12	2	7	3	-3	13
19	Newcastle	13	3	4	6	-4	13
20	Watford	12	3	4	5	-9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	10	1	1	+19	31
2	Chelsea	12	7	3	2	+15	24
3	Man United	12	7	3	2	+11	24
4	Liverpool	13	7	3	3	+10	24
5	Tottenham	12	6	2	4	+8	20
6	Burnley	13	4	6	3	-1	18
7	Leicester	13	3	5	5	-1	14
8	Watford	12	4	1	7	-2	13
9	Arsenal	13	3	4	6	-6	13
10	Bournemouth	13	3	4	6	-6	13
11	Newcastle	12	3	2	7	-8	11
12	West Ham	13	2	5	6	-9	11
13	Crystal Palace	13	2	4	7	-12	10
14	Swansea	12	2	3	7	-10	9
15	Brighton	13	2	3	8	-10	9
16	Southampton	11	1	5	5	-8	8
17	Everton	12	1	5	6	-15	8
18	Huddersfield	12	2	2	8	-17	8
19	West Brom	12	1	4	7	-9	7
20	Stoke	12	1	3	8	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.