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Championship

Referee: D Coote

Reading

T S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Stoke

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 43%

57%

29%

Points per game

1,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

57%

29%

Both score Ø 29%

14%

43%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

40% Possession 60%

11 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Reading 7. · Stoke 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	8	5	1	2	+6	16
2	Sheffield United	7	4	2	1	+9	14
3	Bristol City	8	4	2	2	+5	14
4	Burnley	8	3	4	1	+6	13
5	Watford	8	3	4	1	+2	13
6	Blackburn	8	4	0	4	-2	12
7	Reading	7	4	0	3	-3	12
8	Sunderland	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	QPR	8	3	2	3	+1	11
10	Preston	8	2	5	1	+1	11
11	Hull	7	3	2	2	-2	11
12	Rotherham	7	2	4	1	+3	10
13	Millwall	8	3	1	4	-2	10
14	Wigan	7	2	4	1	-2	10
15	West Brom	8	1	6	1	+2	9
16	Luton	8	2	3	3	-1	9
17	Swansea	8	2	3	3	-4	9
18	Blackpool	7	2	2	3	-2	8
19	Stoke	7	2	2	3	-2	8
20	Birmingham	8	2	2	4	-3	8
21	Cardiff	8	2	2	4	-4	8
22	Middlesbrough	7	1	3	3	-2	6
23	Huddersfield	6	1	1	4	-3	4
24	Coventry	5	0	1	4	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Norwich	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Bristol City	4	3	0	1	+5	9
4	Reading	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Millwall	4	3	0	1	+4	9
6	Hull	3	3	0	0	+3	9
7	Watford	4	3	0	1	+2	9
8	Rotherham	4	2	2	0	+6	8
9	QPR	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Cardiff	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	West Brom	4	1	3	0	+3	6
12	Burnley	4	1	3	0	+2	6
13	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	+0	6
14	Sunderland	4	1	2	1	+2	5
15	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+1	5
16	Stoke	4	1	2	1	+1	5
17	Huddersfield	3	1	1	1	+1	4
18	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-1	4
19	Blackpool	4	1	1	2	-1	4
20	Swansea	4	1	1	2	-4	4
21	Preston	4	0	3	1	-1	3
22	Wigan	4	0	3	1	-4	3
23	Luton	4	0	2	2	-2	2
24	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	4	2	2	0	+2	8
2	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+4	7
3	Wigan	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Luton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Sunderland	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Norwich	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Watford	4	0	4	0	+0	4
11	QPR	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Blackpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	West Brom	4	0	3	1	-1	3
15	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Reading	4	1	0	3	-8	3
17	Sheffield United	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Rotherham	3	0	2	1	-3	2
19	Hull	4	0	2	2	-5	2
20	Middlesbrough	4	0	1	3	-3	1
21	Coventry	4	0	1	3	-5	1
22	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-5	1
23	Millwall	4	0	1	3	-6	1
24	Huddersfield	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.