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Ligue 2
Referee: M Leleu
Bastia
U S T T U
2–1
Full-time
Caen
U U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Caen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,3
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,8
Scored
2,0
1,2
Conceded
1,5
2,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-1,5
This season — Ligue 2 · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 23%
30%
15%
Points per game
1,4
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
36%
52%
Both score Ø 47%
48%
45%
Average goals
2,3
2,6
Scored
1,2
0,9
Conceded
1,1
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

49% Possession 51%
27 Shots 4
11 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 9
12 Corners 1
4 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 8
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bastia 9. · Caen 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Lorient 33 21 5 7 +33 68
2 Paris FC 33 20 6 7 +20 66
3 Metz 33 17 11 5 +29 62
4 Dunkerque 33 17 4 12 +7 55
5 Guingamp 33 16 4 13 +10 52
6 Laval 33 14 8 11 +7 50
7 Annecy 33 13 9 11 -3 48
8 Grenoble 33 13 7 13 +1 46
9 Bastia 33 10 15 8 +5 45
10 Amiens 33 13 4 16 -11 43
11 Ajaccio 33 12 6 15 -10 42
12 Pau FC 33 10 12 11 -12 42
13 Troyes 33 12 5 16 +1 41
14 Rodez 33 9 11 13 +2 38
15 Red Star 33 9 10 14 -14 37
16 Clermont 33 7 11 15 -16 32
17 Martigues 33 9 5 19 -23 32
18 Caen 33 5 7 21 -26 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bastia Caen
3′
🟨 Noe Lebreton
1–0 D. Guidi
T. Ducrocq
24′
28′
I. Najim 1–1
B. Brahimi
Half-time 1–1
46′
🔁 R. Verhaeghe
↦ E. Ntim
47′
🟨 Mickaël Le Bihan
61′
🔁 M. Autret
↦ S. Grandsir
61′
🔁 A. Ba Loua
↦ M. Le Bihan
M. Blé 🔁
↦ J. Sebas
64′
T. Meynadier 🔁
↦ F. Bohnert
64′
2–1 Z. Ariss
F. Tomi
72′
73′
🔁 G. Tomé
↦ I. Najim
73′
🔁 L. Rajot
↦ B. Brahimi
L. Tramoni 🔁
↦ L. Cissé
77′
C. Vincent 🔁
↦ C. Inao Oulaï
77′
M. Boumaaoui 🔁
↦ A. Boutrah
86′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Bastia

4-2-3-1
30 J. Placide G
15 F. Bohnert D
6 D. Guidi D
4 A. Roncaglia D
17 Z. Ariss D
13 T. Ducrocq M
2 C. Inao Oulaï M
9 F. Tomi M
10 A. Boutrah M
22 J. Sebas M
11 L. Cissé F
Bench (7)
33 M. Blé
24 T. Meynadier
27 L. Tramoni
7 C. Vincent
21 M. Boumaaoui
14 L. Etoga
23 J. Fabri

Coach: B. Tavenot

Caen

4-2-3-1
16 Y. Clémentia G
37 L. Milliner D
91 E. Ntim D
61 B. Traoré D
3 D. Bolumbu D
20 N. Lebreton M
6 Y. M'Vila M
10 B. Brahimi M
8 M. Le Bihan M
21 S. Grandsir M
50 I. Najim F
Bench (7)
36 R. Verhaeghe
23 M. Autret
88 A. Ba Loua
39 G. Tomé
14 L. Rajot
1 A. Mandréa
27 J. Gaudin

Coach: M. Der Zakarian

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,50
U
4,37
B
5,67
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,57
U2,5
2,33
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Leleu · 59 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
27,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.