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Eredivisie
Referee: E van de Graaf
Waalwijk
U U T T T
3–1
Full-time
Heerenveen
T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Waalwijk Heerenveen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,7
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
2,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 31/30 matches
Win Ø 25%
13%
37%
Points per game
0,6
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
68%
53%
Both score Ø 56%
58%
53%
Average goals
3,4
2,7
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
2,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,34 xG 0,91
50% Possession 50%
18 Shots 3
6 Shots on target 1
8 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 2
2 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Waalwijk 18. · Heerenveen 8.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Ajax 31 23 5 3 +36 +31.0 74
2 PSV Eindhoven 31 22 4 5 +58 +43.1 70
3 Feyenoord 31 19 8 4 +39 +25.3 65
4 Utrecht 31 18 8 5 +19 +4.1 62
5 Twente 29 13 9 7 +13 +12.7 48
6 Go Ahead Eagles 31 13 8 10 +3 +7.9 47
7 AZ Alkmaar 29 12 8 9 +8 +12.1 44
8 Heerenveen 30 11 7 12 -6 -1.0 40
9 Groningen 31 10 8 13 -8 -6.5 38
10 Heracles 32 9 11 12 -17 -15.2 38
11 For Sittard 31 10 6 15 -18 -8.7 36
12 Sparta Rotterdam 31 8 11 12 -5 -0.2 35
13 Nijmegen 30 9 7 14 +0 +2.5 34
14 Zwolle 31 8 10 13 -11 -20.7 34
15 NAC Breda 31 8 8 15 -20 -16.9 32
16 Willem II 32 6 7 19 -21 -30.4 25
17 Almere City 31 4 8 19 -38 -16.3 20
18 Waalwijk 31 4 7 20 -32 -22.6 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Waalwijk Heerenveen
1–0 R. Margaret
10′
16′
🔁 A. Condé
↦ M. Linday
36′
I. Nicolăescu 1–1
43′
🟨 Oliver Braude
Half-time 1–1
55′
ℹ️ Ilias Sebaoui
VAR: Card upgrade
56′
🟥 Ilias Sebaoui
67′
🔁 M. Luković
↦ J. Trenskow
Liam van Gelderen 🟨
71′
C. Lokesa 🔁
↦ O. Zawada
72′
G. Roemeratoe 🔁
↦ T. van de Loo
72′
M. Kramer 🔁
↦ R. van Eijma
72′
74′
🔁 K. Jansen
↦ I. Nicolăescu
2–1 Y. Oukili
C. Lokesa
75′
3–1 C. Lokesa
J. Familia-Castillo
79′
Chris Lokesa 🟨
80′
P. Vroegh 🔁
↦ Y. Oukili
87′
D. Cleonise 🔁
↦ M. Ihattaren
87′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Waalwijk

3-1-4-2
16 M. Spenkelink G
2 J. Lelieveld D
17 R. van Eijma D
4 L. van Gelderen D
22 T. van de Loo M
33 F. Al Mazyani M
52 M. Ihattaren M
6 Y. Oukili M
5 J. Familia-Castillo M
9 O. Zawada F
19 R. Margaret F
Bench (12)
14 C. Lokesa
24 G. Roemeratoe
29 M. Kramer
8 P. Vroegh
7 D. Cleonise
28 A. Meijers
34 L. Wouters
13 J. Kesting
1 J. Houwen
32 R. El Yaakoubi
35 K. Felida
11 A. Jakobsen

Coach: H. Fraser

Heerenveen

4-2-3-1
44 A. Noppert G
45 O. Braude D
4 S. Kersten D
28 H. Petrov D
11 M. Köhlert D
21 E. van Ee M
16 M. Linday M
20 J. Trenskow M
14 L. Smans M
10 I. Sebaoui M
18 I. Nicolăescu F
Bench (12)
6 A. Condé
24 M. Luković
31 K. Jansen
15 Hussein Ali
23 J. Bekkema
50 E. Gürbüz
2 D. Hall
39 I. Ahmed
7 C. Nunnely
22 B. Klaverboer
32 R. Bouw
26 D. Rallis

Coach: R. Veldman

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,37
U
3,83
B
1,99
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,52
U2,5
2,41
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

E van de Graaf · 83 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.