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Serie A
Referee: F Fourneau
Como
S S S S S
3–1
Full-time
Cagliari
U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Como Cagliari
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
83%
33%
Points per game
2,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,5
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
0,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches
Win Ø 29%
34%
23%
Points per game
1,3
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
46%
49%
Both score Ø 56%
60%
51%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
1,4
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,1
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,02 xG 0,81
62% Possession 38%
19 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 1
1 Offside 0
9 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Como 10. · Cagliari 14.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Napoli 35 23 8 4 +30 +20.2 77
2 Inter 35 22 8 5 +40 +31.6 74
3 Atalanta 35 20 8 7 +40 +26.2 68
4 Juventus 35 16 15 4 +20 +14.2 63
5 Roma 35 18 9 8 +18 +12.2 63
6 Lazio 35 18 9 8 +13 +15.9 63
7 Bologna 36 16 14 6 +13 +11.7 62
8 Milan 36 17 9 10 +18 +20.9 60
9 Fiorentina 35 17 8 10 +18 +5.9 59
10 Como 35 12 9 14 -3 +0.9 45
11 Torino 35 10 14 11 -1 -13.6 44
12 Udinese 35 12 8 15 -11 -9.6 44
13 Genoa 35 9 12 14 -13 -8.5 39
14 Cagliari 35 8 9 18 -15 -11.1 33
15 Parma 35 6 14 15 -14 -13.9 32
16 Verona 35 9 5 21 -33 -19.6 32
17 Lecce 35 6 9 20 -33 -22.8 27
18 Venezia 35 4 14 17 -21 -19.0 26
19 Empoli 35 4 13 18 -28 -18.3 25
20 Monza 35 2 9 24 -38 -23.2 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,75
U
3,76
B
4,66
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,90
U2,5
1,92
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Fourneau · 86 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
27,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.