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Ligue 2
Referee: T Bouille
Caen
U T U S T
1–0
Full-time
Bastia
U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Bastia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
1,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,0
Scored
1,7
0,8
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,3
This season — Ligue 2 · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 27%
27%
27%
Points per game
1,1
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
60%
47%
Both score Ø 50%
60%
40%
Average goals
3,1
2,2
Scored
1,5
0,9
Conceded
1,6
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,1
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%
9 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 21
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Caen 16. · Bastia 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Laval 15 10 2 3 +8 32
2 Angers 15 9 3 3 +12 30
3 Grenoble 15 7 6 2 +5 27
4 Auxerre 15 7 5 3 +14 26
5 Pau FC 15 7 4 4 +1 25
6 Guingamp 15 6 6 3 +8 24
7 St Etienne 15 7 3 5 +2 24
8 Ajaccio 15 6 5 4 +1 23
9 Rodez 15 5 5 5 +1 20
10 Amiens 15 5 5 5 -3 20
11 Concarneau 15 5 4 6 -3 19
12 Bordeaux 16 5 4 7 -6 19
13 Annecy 15 4 6 5 -3 18
14 Paris FC 15 5 2 8 -3 17
15 Bastia 15 4 5 6 -5 17
16 Caen 15 4 4 7 -1 16
17 Troyes 16 3 7 6 -2 16
18 Quevilly Rouen 15 2 6 7 -4 12
19 Dunkerque 15 3 3 9 -11 12
20 Valenciennes 15 1 7 7 -11 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Caen Bastia
-5′
🟨 Kapitbafan Djoco
33′
🟨 Cheick Keita
Half-time 0–0
65′
🔁 F. Bianchini
↦ K. Djoco
67′
🟨 Jocelyn Janneh
N. Lebreton 🔁
↦ Q. Daubin
67′
Didí Gaucho 🟨
77′
D. Meddah 🔁
↦ D. Debohi
79′
M. Le Bihan 🔁
↦ G. Kyeremeh
79′
1–0 Alexandre Mendy
A. Abdi
88′
Bilal Brahimi 🟨
90′
M. Hafid 🔁
↦ B. Brahimi
90′
92′
🔁 F. Tomi
↦ A. Roncaglia
93′
🟨 Dylan Tavares
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Caen

4-4-2
1 A. Mandréa G
4 V. Henry D
61 B. Traoré D
29 R. Thomas D
2 A. Abdi D
17 G. Kyeremeh M
97 D. Debohi
6 Q. Daubin M
23 M. Autret M
21 B. Brahimi F
19 Alexandre Mendy F
Bench (7)
20 N. Lebreton
27 D. Meddah
11 M. Le Bihan
22 M. Hafid
28 D. Diani
92 A. Coeff
16 Y. Clémentia

Coach: N. Seube

Bastia

3-4-2-1
30 J. Placide G
4 A. Roncaglia D
95 C. Keita D
99 Y. Okou D
15 F. Bohnert M
66 J. Janneh M
13 T. Ducrocq M
42 Dylan Tavares M
7 C. Vincent F
39 K. Djoco F
10 M. Alfarela F
Bench (7)
17 F. Bianchini
18 F. Tomi
19 M. Loubatières
22 C. Traoré
23 J. Fabri
27 R. Yapi
5 I. Dramé

Coach: R. Brouard

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,87
U
3,49
B
4,10
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,03
U2,5 ✓
1,76
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

T Bouille · 44 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,05 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.