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Bundesliga

Referee: R Schröder

Holstein Kiel

U T U S S

1–2

Full-time

Freiburg

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 33%

19%

47%

Points per game

0,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

75%

66%

Both score Ø 64%

75%

53%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,98 xG 1,58

60% Possession 40%

15 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 17. · Freiburg 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	23	7	2	+61	+53.4	76
2	Leverkusen	32	19	11	2	+31	+22.1	68
3	Ein Frankfurt	32	16	8	8	+20	+14.4	56
4	Freiburg	32	15	7	10	-3	+1.9	52
5	Dortmund	32	15	6	11	+15	+19.2	51
6	RB Leipzig	32	13	11	8	+6	-6.9	50
7	Mainz	32	13	9	10	+9	-1.1	48
8	Werder Bremen	32	13	8	11	-6	+1.8	47
9	M'gladbach	32	13	6	13	+1	-9.9	45
10	Stuttgart	32	12	8	12	+6	+11.5	44
11	Augsburg	32	11	10	11	-11	-12.3	43
12	Wolfsburg	33	10	10	13	+1	-5.3	40
13	Union Berlin	32	9	11	12	-12	-9.7	38
14	Hoffenheim	33	7	11	15	-18	-13.6	32
15	St Pauli	32	8	7	17	-11	-10.2	31
16	Heidenheim	32	7	5	20	-27	-15.8	26
17	Holstein Kiel	32	6	7	19	-27	-18.6	25
18	Bochum	32	4	8	20	-35	-20.9	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	2	1	+35	+33.8	41
2	Leverkusen	16	10	4	2	+16	+15.3	34
3	Dortmund	16	10	3	3	+22	+16.2	33
4	Ein Frankfurt	16	10	3	3	+19	+17.0	33
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	6	2	+11	+3.2	30
6	Freiburg	16	9	3	4	+8	+2.0	30
7	Mainz	16	6	7	3	+6	+5.0	25
8	M'gladbach	16	7	3	6	+4	-0.8	24
9	Augsburg	16	6	5	5	-1	+2.6	23
10	Union Berlin	16	5	7	4	+0	+2.1	22
11	Stuttgart	16	6	2	8	+4	+12.0	20
12	Werder Bremen	16	5	5	6	-5	+4.5	20
13	Hoffenheim	16	4	5	7	-7	-3.4	17
14	Wolfsburg	17	3	7	7	-3	-0.3	16
15	St Pauli	16	3	5	8	-7	-1.0	14
16	Holstein Kiel	16	4	2	10	-16	-6.4	14
17	Bochum	16	3	4	9	-14	-2.9	13
18	Heidenheim	16	3	2	11	-17	-7.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	10	5	1	+26	+19.6	35
2	Leverkusen	16	9	7	0	+15	+6.8	34
3	Werder Bremen	16	8	3	5	-1	-2.7	27
4	Wolfsburg	16	7	3	6	+4	-5.1	24
5	Stuttgart	16	6	6	4	+2	-0.5	24
6	Mainz	16	7	2	7	+3	-6.1	23
7	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	5	5	+1	-2.6	23
8	Freiburg	16	6	4	6	-11	-0.1	22
9	M'gladbach	16	6	3	7	-3	-9.1	21
10	RB Leipzig	16	5	5	6	-5	-10.1	20
11	Augsburg	16	5	5	6	-10	-15.0	20
12	Dortmund	16	5	3	8	-7	+2.9	18
13	St Pauli	16	5	2	9	-4	-9.1	17
14	Union Berlin	16	4	4	8	-12	-11.8	16
15	Heidenheim	16	4	3	9	-10	-8.6	15
16	Hoffenheim	17	3	6	8	-11	-10.2	15
17	Holstein Kiel	16	2	5	9	-11	-12.1	11
18	Bochum	16	1	4	11	-21	-17.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.