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Premier League
Referee: M Oliver
Wolves
S S S S T
0–2
Full-time
Brighton
T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wolves Brighton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,5
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,5
3,8
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
0,7
2,3
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches
Win Ø 36%
34%
37%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
69%
71%
Both score Ø 66%
60%
71%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
1,5
1,6
Conceded
1,8
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,91 xG 1,57
56% Possession 44%
10 Shots 7
3 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Wolves 13. · Brighton 10.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Liverpool 35 25 7 3 +46 +44.7 82
2 Arsenal 35 18 13 4 +33 +25.8 67
3 Man City 35 19 7 9 +24 +16.7 64
4 Newcastle 35 19 6 10 +21 +16.9 63
5 Chelsea 35 18 9 8 +21 +21.6 63
6 Nott'm Forest 35 18 7 10 +12 -4.6 61
7 Aston Villa 35 17 9 9 +6 +8.2 60
8 Bournemouth 35 14 11 10 +13 +14.7 53
9 Brentford 35 15 7 13 +9 +1.3 52
10 Brighton 35 13 13 9 +1 +3.4 52
11 Fulham 35 14 9 12 +3 +5.2 51
12 Crystal Palace 35 11 13 11 -4 +8.7 46
13 Wolves 35 12 5 18 -11 -12.8 41
14 Everton 35 8 15 12 -7 -6.0 39
15 Man United 35 10 9 16 -9 -4.4 39
16 Tottenham 35 11 5 19 +6 -1.0 38
17 West Ham 35 9 10 16 -19 -11.2 37
18 Ipswich 35 4 10 21 -41 -39.8 22
19 Leicester 35 5 6 24 -47 -38.5 21
20 Southampton 35 2 5 28 -57 -48.9 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Wolves Brighton
Matheus Cunha 🟨
27′
29′
D. Welbeck 0–1
Half-time 0–1
49′
🟨 Mats Wieffer
Rodrigo Gomes 🔁
↦ M. Doherty
59′
Pablo Sarabia 🔁
↦ Gonçalo Guedes
59′
J. Strand Larsen 🔁
↦ Matheus Cunha
59′
59′
🔁 S. Adingra
↦ T. Lamptey
59′
🔁 B. Gruda
↦ M. ORiley
J. Bellegarde 🔁
↦ João Gomes
60′
79′
🔁 D. Gómez
↦ C. Baleba
80′
🔁 K. Mitoma
↦ Y. Minteh
85′
B. Gruda 0–2
S. Adingra
M. Mané 🔁
↦ André
89′
94′
🔁 J. Hinshelwood
↦ Y. Ayari
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Wolves

3-4-2-1
1 José Sá G
2 M. Doherty D
12 E. Agbadou D
24 Toti Gomes D
22 Nélson Semedo M
8 João Gomes M
7 André M
3 R. Aït-Nouri M
5 M. Munetsi F
10 Matheus Cunha F
29 Gonçalo Guedes F
Bench (9)
19 Rodrigo Gomes
21 Pablo Sarabia
9 J. Strand Larsen
27 J. Bellegarde
59 M. Mané
6 B. Traoré
4 S. Bueno
34 N. Djiga
25 D. Bentley

Coach: Vítor Pereira

Brighton

4-2-3-1
1 B. Verbruggen G
27 M. Wieffer D
29 J. van Hecke D
4 A. Webster D
30 P. Estupiñán D
20 C. Baleba M
26 Y. Ayari M
2 T. Lamptey M
33 M. O'Riley M
17 Y. Minteh M
18 D. Welbeck F
Bench (9)
11 S. Adingra
8 B. Gruda
25 D. Gómez
22 K. Mitoma
41 J. Hinshelwood
23 J. Steele
72 H. Howell
16 E. Cashin
3 Igor Julio

Coach: F. Hürzeler

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,73
U
3,47
B ✓
2,54
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,73
U2,5 ✓
2,12
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Oliver · 207 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.