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Ligue 2

Referee: M Bollengier

Metz

U U S U S

1–1

Full-time

Lorient

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 2 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

50%

75%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 63%

100%

25%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

7 Shots 16

1 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 10

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 10. · Lorient 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bastia	5	3	2	0	+3	11
2	Guingamp	5	3	1	1	+5	10
3	Grenoble	5	3	1	1	+5	10
4	Lorient	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Paris FC	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	Amiens	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	Dunkerque	5	3	0	2	+0	9
8	Annecy	5	2	2	1	+3	8
9	Pau FC	5	2	2	1	+3	8
10	Metz	4	2	2	0	+3	8
11	Ajaccio	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Red Star	5	2	0	3	-5	6
13	Laval	5	1	2	2	+1	5
14	Clermont	5	1	1	3	-2	4
15	Caen	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Rodez	5	1	0	4	-2	3
17	Martigues	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Troyes	5	0	1	4	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amiens	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Grenoble	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Bastia	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Pau FC	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Lorient	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Ajaccio	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Dunkerque	3	2	0	1	+0	6
8	Guingamp	3	1	1	1	+3	4
9	Caen	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Annecy	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Paris FC	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Red Star	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Metz	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Laval	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Clermont	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Rodez	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Troyes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Martigues	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Metz	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Paris FC	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Guingamp	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Annecy	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Laval	3	1	1	1	+2	4
6	Bastia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Grenoble	2	1	0	1	+2	3
8	Rodez	3	1	0	2	+1	3
9	Dunkerque	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Lorient	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Clermont	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Martigues	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Red Star	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Pau FC	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Ajaccio	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Troyes	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Caen	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Amiens	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.