Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Academica
Torreense
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Anadia
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 |
Maria da Fonte
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 |
Sanjoanense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 4 |
FC Serpa
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 5 |
Amarante
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 |
Penafiel
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 7 |
Sertanense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 8 |
Rebordosa
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 9 |
Moncarapachense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 10 |
Arronches e Benfica
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 11 |
Machico
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 12 |
Louletano
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 13 |
Cinfães
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 14 |
Mortágua
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 15 |
Os Limianos
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 16 |
Portimonense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 17 |
Pombal
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Academica
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 19 |
Estrela Vendas Novas
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 20 |
União de Leiria
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 21 |
União Santarém
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 22 |
Tirsense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 23 |
Operário
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 24 |
Ferreira Zêzere
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 25 |
Guarda
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 26 |
CF Benfica
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 27 |
Vilaverdense
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 28 |
1º Dezembro
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 29 |
Brito
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 30 |
Lusitânia
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 31 |
Lusitânia Lourosa
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 32 |
Pevidem
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 33 |
Mafra
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 34 |
Aliança de Gandra
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 35 |
CF Os Belenenses
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 36 |
Régua
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 37 |
Moura
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 38 |
Caldas
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 39 |
Vieira
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 |
| 40 |
Vianense
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 41 |
Leça
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 42 |
AD Marco 09
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 43 |
União de Coimbra
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 44 |
Beira-Mar
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 45 |
Ovarense
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 46 |
São João Ver
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 47 |
Vila Real
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 48 |
Joane
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 49 |
Estarreja
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 50 |
Comércio Indústria
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 51 |
Dumiense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 52 |
Cardielense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 53 |
Vinhais
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 54 |
Oliveirense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 55 |
Maia Lidador
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 56 |
São Roque (Açores)
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 57 |
União Lamas
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 58 |
Maritimo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 59 |
Olímpico do Montijo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 60 |
Salgueiros
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 61 |
Viana Alentejo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 62 |
Velense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 63 |
Lajense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 64 |
Portel
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 65 |
UD da Serra
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 66 |
Valpaços
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 67 |
Vila Cortez
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 68 |
Pedrógão São Pedro
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 69 |
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 70 |
Madalena
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 71 |
Camacha
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 72 |
Sacavenense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 73 |
Abrantes e Benfica
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 74 |
Pedras Salgadas
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 75 |
Académico do Fundão
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 76 |
Fafe
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 77 |
Tocha
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 78 |
Vieirense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 79 |
Juventude Gaula
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 80 |
O Grandolense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 81 |
Gavionenses
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 82 |
Rabo Peixe
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 83 |
Macedo Cavaleiros
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 84 |
Lagos
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 85 |
Resende
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 86 |
Oliveira de Frades
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 87 |
Ginásio Figueirense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 88 |
Praia Milfontes
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Academica
Benfica Castelo Branco
Amarante
Academica
Academica
Oliveira Hospital
Academica
União de Coimbra
Academica
Tondela
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.