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Ligue 1

Referee: E Wattellier

Metz

U U S T T

4–1

Full-time

Lorient

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,2

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 15%

12%

18%

Points per game

0,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

65%

35%

Both score Ø 56%

59%

53%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,1

0,8

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

33% Possession 67%

5 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 19. · Lorient 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	13	3	1	+20	42
2	Rennes	17	9	4	4	+18	31
3	Marseille	16	8	5	3	+9	29
4	Nice	17	8	4	5	+10	28
5	Montpellier	18	8	4	6	+6	28
6	Lens	18	7	6	5	+6	27
7	Strasbourg	17	7	5	5	+12	26
8	Monaco	17	7	5	5	+7	26
9	Angers	17	6	7	4	+3	25
10	Nantes	18	7	4	7	+1	25
11	Lille	18	6	7	5	-1	25
12	Lyon	17	6	6	5	+0	24
13	Brest	18	6	6	6	-2	24
14	Reims	18	5	7	6	+0	22
15	Troyes	17	4	4	9	-9	16
16	Lorient	17	3	6	8	-13	15
17	Bordeaux	17	2	8	7	-13	14
18	Clermont	17	3	5	9	-13	14
19	Metz	17	2	6	9	-19	12
20	St Etienne	18	2	6	10	-22	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	7	1	0	+13	22
2	Rennes	9	6	1	2	+12	19
3	Strasbourg	9	5	2	2	+13	17
4	Montpellier	9	5	2	2	+6	17
5	Lens	9	4	4	1	+9	16
6	Nantes	9	5	1	3	+4	16
7	Lille	9	4	4	1	+1	16
8	Monaco	9	4	3	2	+7	15
9	Lyon	8	4	3	1	+6	15
10	Marseille	9	4	3	2	+6	15
11	Angers	8	4	1	3	+1	13
12	Nice	9	3	3	3	+1	12
13	Reims	9	3	3	3	+1	12
14	Brest	9	3	3	3	+0	12
15	Lorient	8	3	2	3	-1	11
16	Troyes	8	2	3	3	+0	9
17	Clermont	8	2	3	3	-1	9
18	Bordeaux	9	1	4	4	-4	7
19	St Etienne	9	1	4	4	-10	7
20	Metz	8	0	4	4	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	6	2	1	+7	20
2	Nice	8	5	1	2	+9	16
3	Marseille	7	4	2	1	+3	14
4	Rennes	8	3	3	2	+6	12
5	Angers	9	2	6	1	+2	12
6	Brest	9	3	3	3	-2	12
7	Montpellier	9	3	2	4	+0	11
8	Monaco	8	3	2	3	+0	11
9	Lens	9	3	2	4	-3	11
10	Reims	9	2	4	3	-1	10
11	Strasbourg	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Lille	9	2	3	4	-2	9
13	Nantes	9	2	3	4	-3	9
14	Lyon	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	Metz	9	2	2	5	-11	8
16	Bordeaux	8	1	4	3	-9	7
17	Troyes	9	2	1	6	-9	7
18	Clermont	9	1	2	6	-12	5
19	St Etienne	9	1	2	6	-12	5
20	Lorient	9	0	4	5	-12	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.