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Ligue 1

Referee: R Lissorgue

Metz

T T U T T

1–2

Full-time

Lorient

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

17%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

4,2

Scored

0,3

1,2

Conceded

1,3

3,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 16%

21%

11%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

42%

68%

Both score Ø 50%

42%

58%

Average goals

2,4

3,4

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,09 xG 1,43

43% Possession 57%

10 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 15. · Lorient 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	20	14	5	1	+31	+18.5	47
2	Nice	19	11	5	3	+9	+9.9	38
3	Brest	19	10	5	4	+12	+5.3	35
4	Monaco	20	10	5	5	+9	+5.1	35
5	Lille	19	8	8	3	+10	+8.6	32
6	Lens	20	9	5	6	+5	+1.7	32
7	Reims	19	9	3	7	+1	+3.2	30
8	Marseille	19	7	8	4	+7	+15.6	29
9	Rennes	20	7	7	6	+5	+8.0	28
10	Strasbourg	20	6	7	7	-5	-2.5	25
11	Le Havre	20	5	9	6	-1	-7.5	24
12	Montpellier	20	4	8	8	-5	-0.4	20
13	Nantes	20	5	4	11	-11	-8.3	19
14	Toulouse	19	3	8	8	-9	-9.5	17
15	Metz	19	4	4	11	-13	-14.7	16
16	Lyon	19	4	4	11	-14	-6.3	16
17	Clermont	19	3	6	10	-14	-13.1	15
18	Lorient	19	2	7	10	-17	-13.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	10	7	3	0	+10	+8.3	24
2	Paris SG	10	7	2	1	+17	+11.6	23
3	Marseille	10	6	4	0	+12	+12.4	22
4	Lille	9	6	2	1	+10	+9.6	20
5	Monaco	10	6	1	3	+8	+5.6	19
6	Brest	9	5	3	1	+10	+9.7	18
7	Rennes	11	5	3	3	+7	+8.4	18
8	Lens	9	5	2	2	+6	+6.3	17
9	Reims	9	5	1	3	+1	+4.2	16
10	Strasbourg	10	4	3	3	+2	+2.9	15
11	Le Havre	9	4	2	3	+3	+3.6	14
12	Nantes	11	3	3	5	-1	-1.6	12
13	Montpellier	10	1	7	2	-1	+4.5	10
14	Lorient	10	2	4	4	-3	-5.1	10
15	Lyon	10	2	3	5	-6	+0.1	9
16	Toulouse	9	1	5	3	-1	+0.5	8
17	Metz	9	1	3	5	-3	-1.8	6
18	Clermont	10	1	3	6	-9	-5.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	7	3	0	+14	+6.9	24
2	Brest	10	5	2	3	+2	-4.3	17
3	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+1	-0.6	16
4	Lens	11	4	3	4	-1	-4.6	15
5	Reims	10	4	2	4	+0	-1.0	14
6	Nice	9	4	2	3	-1	+1.6	14
7	Lille	10	2	6	2	+0	-1.0	12
8	Rennes	9	2	4	3	-2	-0.4	10
9	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-4	-4.9	10
10	Le Havre	11	1	7	3	-4	-11.1	10
11	Strasbourg	10	2	4	4	-7	-5.4	10
12	Metz	10	3	1	6	-10	-12.9	10
13	Clermont	9	2	3	4	-5	-8.0	9
14	Toulouse	10	2	3	5	-8	-10.0	9
15	Marseille	9	1	4	4	-5	+3.2	7
16	Lyon	9	2	1	6	-8	-6.4	7
17	Nantes	9	2	1	6	-10	-6.7	7
18	Lorient	9	0	3	6	-14	-8.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.