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Ligue 1

Referee: J Brisard

Metz

T T T T T

2–2

Full-time

St Etienne

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz St Etienne

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 35/1 matches

Win Ø 62%

23%

100%

Points per game

0,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 77%

54%

100%

Both score Ø 77%

54%

100%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

33% Possession 67%

12 Shots 33

5 Shots on target 12

4 Blocked shots 10

10 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 13

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	34	22	10	2	+48	+28.9	76
2	Monaco	34	20	7	7	+26	+12.6	67
3	Brest	34	17	10	7	+19	+9.1	61
4	Lille	34	16	11	7	+18	+13.0	59
5	Nice	34	15	10	9	+11	+14.7	55
6	Lyon	34	16	5	13	-6	-2.6	53
7	Lens	34	14	9	11	+8	+6.8	51
8	Marseille	34	13	11	10	+11	+20.0	50
9	Reims	34	13	8	13	-5	-1.6	47
10	Rennes	34	12	10	12	+7	+12.4	46
11	Toulouse	34	11	10	13	-4	-7.6	43
12	Montpellier	34	10	12	12	-5	-4.7	42
13	Strasbourg	34	10	9	15	-12	-4.4	39
14	Nantes	34	9	6	19	-25	-15.6	33
15	Le Havre	34	7	11	16	-11	-13.3	32
16	Lorient	34	7	8	19	-23	-17.5	29
17	Metz	35	8	5	22	-24	-21.9	29
18	Clermont	34	5	10	19	-34	-28.2	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	17	11	4	2	+20	+16.6	37
2	Marseille	17	10	6	1	+18	+17.5	36
3	Paris SG	17	9	6	2	+20	+20.4	33
4	Monaco	17	10	3	4	+16	+11.8	33
5	Brest	17	8	7	2	+11	+12.7	31
6	Nice	17	9	4	4	+10	+11.6	31
7	Lens	17	9	4	4	+9	+12.2	31
8	Reims	17	8	3	6	+1	+3.6	27
9	Rennes	17	7	4	6	+8	+13.7	25
10	Lyon	17	7	4	6	-4	+3.3	25
11	Strasbourg	17	7	3	7	-1	+2.4	24
12	Le Havre	17	6	2	9	-1	+3.2	20
13	Montpellier	17	3	9	5	-3	+6.4	18
14	Lorient	17	4	4	9	-4	-2.8	16
15	Toulouse	17	3	7	7	-4	+4.1	16
16	Clermont	17	3	5	9	-13	-5.4	14
17	Metz	17	3	3	11	-10	-5.0	12
18	Nantes	17	3	3	11	-13	-8.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	13	4	0	+28	+8.5	43
2	Monaco	17	10	4	3	+10	+0.9	34
3	Brest	17	9	3	5	+8	-3.6	30
4	Lyon	17	9	1	7	-2	-5.9	28
5	Toulouse	17	8	3	6	+0	-11.7	27
6	Nice	17	6	6	5	+1	+3.1	24
7	Montpellier	17	7	3	7	-2	-11.2	24
8	Lille	17	5	7	5	-2	-3.6	22
9	Rennes	17	5	6	6	-1	-1.3	21
10	Nantes	17	6	3	8	-12	-7.1	21
11	Lens	17	5	5	7	-1	-5.4	20
12	Reims	17	5	5	7	-6	-5.2	20
13	Metz	18	5	2	11	-14	-16.9	17
14	Strasbourg	17	3	6	8	-11	-6.7	15
15	Marseille	17	3	5	9	-7	+2.4	14
16	Lorient	17	3	4	10	-19	-14.7	13
17	Le Havre	17	1	9	7	-10	-16.6	12
18	Clermont	17	2	5	10	-21	-22.9	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.