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Championship

Referee: C Kavanagh

Derby

S T U T U

0–1

Full-time

Millwall

S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,7

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,7

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

This season — Championship · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 31%

29%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

38%

48%

Both score Ø 60%

48%

71%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

64% Possession 36%

11 Shots 7

1 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 16. · Millwall 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	22	14	7	1	+22	49
2	Leeds	21	14	4	3	+22	46
3	Bristol City	21	9	8	4	+4	35
4	Fulham	20	10	4	6	+10	34
5	Nott'm Forest	20	9	7	4	+10	34
6	Preston	21	10	4	7	+7	34
7	Sheffield Weds	21	9	6	6	+9	33
8	Swansea	20	8	7	5	+3	31
9	Blackburn	21	9	4	8	+0	31
10	QPR	21	9	4	8	-5	31
11	Brentford	20	9	3	8	+12	30
12	Hull	22	8	6	8	+3	30
13	Cardiff	20	8	6	6	+2	30
14	Millwall	21	7	9	5	-1	30
15	Birmingham	22	8	4	10	-7	28
16	Derby	21	6	8	7	-6	26
17	Charlton	22	6	6	10	-2	24
18	Reading	20	6	4	10	-2	22
19	Huddersfield	21	5	6	10	-10	21
20	Middlesbrough	21	4	9	8	-10	21
21	Luton	21	6	2	13	-17	20
22	Stoke	21	5	2	14	-11	17
23	Wigan	21	4	5	12	-15	17
24	Barnsley	21	2	7	12	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	11	8	2	1	+15	26
2	Leeds	10	7	2	1	+11	23
3	West Brom	10	6	4	0	+13	22
4	Cardiff	9	7	1	1	+9	22
5	Blackburn	11	6	3	2	+5	21
6	Fulham	11	6	2	3	+8	20
7	Derby	11	5	5	1	+6	20
8	Millwall	10	5	4	1	+5	19
9	Sheffield Weds	10	5	4	1	+5	19
10	Brentford	10	5	3	2	+11	18
11	Hull	11	5	2	4	+4	17
12	Birmingham	11	5	2	4	+1	17
13	Bristol City	10	4	4	2	+4	16
14	Middlesbrough	11	4	4	3	-1	16
15	Charlton	12	4	3	5	+1	15
16	QPR	11	4	3	4	-3	15
17	Nott'm Forest	9	4	2	3	+3	14
18	Swansea	10	4	2	4	+2	14
19	Luton	10	4	2	4	+0	14
20	Wigan	10	4	2	4	-3	14
21	Reading	10	4	0	6	-2	12
22	Barnsley	11	2	5	4	-5	11
23	Stoke	11	3	1	7	-4	10
24	Huddersfield	11	2	4	5	-4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	12	8	3	1	+9	27
2	Leeds	11	7	2	2	+11	23
3	Nott'm Forest	11	5	5	1	+7	20
4	Bristol City	11	5	4	2	+0	19
5	Swansea	10	4	5	1	+1	17
6	QPR	10	5	1	4	-2	16
7	Sheffield Weds	11	4	2	5	+4	14
8	Fulham	9	4	2	3	+2	14
9	Hull	11	3	4	4	-1	13
10	Brentford	10	4	0	6	+1	12
11	Huddersfield	10	3	2	5	-6	11
12	Millwall	11	2	5	4	-6	11
13	Birmingham	11	3	2	6	-8	11
14	Reading	10	2	4	4	+0	10
15	Blackburn	10	3	1	6	-5	10
16	Charlton	10	2	3	5	-3	9
17	Cardiff	11	1	5	5	-7	8
18	Preston	10	2	2	6	-8	8
19	Stoke	10	2	1	7	-7	7
20	Derby	10	1	3	6	-12	6
21	Luton	11	2	0	9	-17	6
22	Middlesbrough	10	0	5	5	-9	5
23	Wigan	11	0	3	8	-12	3
24	Barnsley	10	0	2	8	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.