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Bundesliga
Referee: B Cortus
Mainz
T T S S T
0–4
Full-time
Dortmund
S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
4,8
3,5
Scored
2,2
2,2
Conceded
2,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,8
This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 43%
36%
50%
Points per game
1,1
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 86%
86%
86%
Both score Ø 64%
71%
57%
Average goals
3,9
3,7
Scored
1,4
2,4
Conceded
2,4
1,4
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

37% Possession 63%
9 Shots 18
0 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 8
3 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 5
2 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Mainz 13. · Dortmund 3. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 M'gladbach 14 10 1 3 +14 31
2 RB Leipzig 14 9 3 2 +23 30
3 Dortmund 14 7 5 2 +14 26
4 Schalke 04 14 7 4 3 +7 25
5 Freiburg 14 7 4 3 +7 25
6 Leverkusen 14 7 4 3 +4 25
7 Bayern Munich 14 7 3 4 +15 24
8 Hoffenheim 15 6 3 6 -6 21
9 Wolfsburg 14 5 5 4 +1 20
10 Augsburg 15 5 5 5 -4 20
11 Union Berlin 14 6 1 7 -1 19
12 Ein Frankfurt 14 5 3 6 +2 18
13 Mainz 14 5 0 9 -14 15
14 Werder Bremen 14 3 5 6 -7 14
15 Hertha 14 3 3 8 -9 12
16 Fortuna Dusseldorf 14 3 3 8 -13 12
17 Paderborn 14 2 2 10 -15 8
18 FC Koln 14 2 2 10 -18 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

13. Apr -19 Dortmund – Mainz 2–1 24. Nov -18 Mainz – Dortmund 1–2 5. May -18 Dortmund – Mainz 1–2 12. Dec -17 Mainz – Dortmund 0–2 29. Jan -17 Mainz – Dortmund 1–1

Match report

Mainz Dortmund
Jeremiah St. Juste 🟨
23′
32′
⚽ M. Reus 0–1
Half-time 0–2
66′
⚽ J. Sancho 0–2
D. Zagadou
69′
⚽ T. Hazard 0–3
M. Reus
73′
🔁 M. Götze
↦ M. Reus
A. Maxim 🔁
↦ J. Boëtius
76′
80′
🔁 M. Dahoud
↦ J. Brandt
J. Mateta 🔁
↦ Á. Szalai
81′
84′
⚽ N. Schulz 0–4
J. Sancho
85′
🔁 Paco Alcácer
↦ J. Sancho
D. Brosinski 🔁
↦ P. Malong
86′
Full-time 0–4

Line-ups

Mainz

3-4-1-2
27 R. Zentner G
3 Aarón Martín M
19 M. Niakhate D
4 J. St. Juste D
8 L. Öztunali M
20 E. Fernandes D
14 P. Malong M
34 R. Baku M
28 Á. Szalai F
5 J. Boëtius F
7 R. Quaison F
Bench (9)
10 A. Maxim
9 J. Mateta
18 D. Brosinski
22 T. Awoniyi
35 L. Barreiro
29 J. Burkardt
1 F. Müller
2 R. Pierre-Gabriel
42 A. Hack

Coach: A. Beierlorzer

Dortmund

3-4-3
1 R. Bürki G
15 M. Hummels D
16 M. Akanji D
5 A. Hakimi M
2 D. Zagadou D
14 N. Schulz M
33 J. Weigl M
7 J. Sancho F
11 M. Reus F
23 T. Hazard F
19 J. Brandt M
Bench (9)
10 M. Götze
8 M. Dahoud
9 Paco Alcácer
13 Raphaël Guerreiro
40 E. Oelschlägel
22 Mate Morey
18 L. Balerdi
26 Ł. Piszczek
34 J. Bruun Larsen

Coach: L. Favre

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,95
🔒
U
4,19
🔒
B ✓
1,65
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,46
🔒
U2,5
2,70
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

B Cortus · 53 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.