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Championship
Referee: J Brooks
Millwall
T S S U U
2–2
Full-time
Nott'm Forest
S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Nott'm Forest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,7
This season — Championship · 19/18 matches
Win Ø 41%
32%
50%
Points per game
1,4
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 41%
42%
39%
Both score Ø 59%
68%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,1
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,6
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%
16 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
10 Corners 2
0 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Millwall 13. · Nott'm Forest 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 West Brom 19 12 6 1 +17 42
2 Leeds 19 12 4 3 +18 40
3 Fulham 18 10 4 4 +12 34
4 Nott'm Forest 18 9 5 4 +10 32
5 Bristol City 19 8 8 3 +4 32
6 Preston 19 9 4 6 +8 31
7 Swansea 18 8 6 4 +7 30
8 Sheffield Weds 19 8 5 6 +8 29
9 Brentford 18 8 3 7 +12 27
10 Cardiff 18 7 6 5 +2 27
11 Blackburn 19 8 3 8 -1 27
12 Hull 19 7 5 7 +4 26
13 Millwall 19 6 8 5 -2 26
14 Derby 19 6 7 6 -5 25
15 Birmingham 19 7 4 8 -5 25
16 QPR 19 7 4 8 -9 25
17 Charlton 19 6 5 8 +0 23
18 Reading 18 6 3 9 -1 21
19 Huddersfield 19 4 6 9 -9 18
20 Middlesbrough 19 3 8 8 -11 17
21 Luton 19 5 2 12 -15 17
22 Wigan 19 4 4 11 -14 16
23 Stoke 19 4 2 13 -13 14
24 Barnsley 19 2 6 11 -17 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Millwall Nott'm Forest
1–0 S. Williams
J. Wallace
15′
30′
🟨 Matty Cash
Ben Thompson 🟨
32′
Half-time 1–0
57′
🔁 J. Lolley
↦ Tobias Figueiredo
T. Bradshaw 🔁
↦ M. Smith
61′
62′
🔁 L. Grabban
↦ Rafa Mir
63′
L. Grabban 1–1
J. Worrall
66′
🟨 Tiago Silva
A. O'Brien 🔁
↦ J. Skalák
78′
80′
🔁 A. Adomah
↦ Alfa Semedo
C. Mahoney 🔁
↦ B. Thompson
83′
88′
L. Grabban 1–2
S. Ameobi
2–2 A. O'Brien
92′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Millwall

4-4-1-1
33 B. Bialkowski G
15 A. Pearce D
3 M. Wallace D
12 M. Romeo D
5 J. Cooper D
6 S. Williams M
26 J. Skalák M
7 J. Wallace M
8 B. Thompson F
16 J. Molumby M
10 M. Smith F
Bench (7)
9 T. Bradshaw
22 A. O'Brien
21 C. Mahoney
23 J. Böðvarsson
17 J. Brown
31 R. Sandford
4 S. Hutchinson

Coach: G. Rowett

Nott'm Forest

3-5-2
30 B. Samba G
20 M. Dawson D
18 J. Robinson M
3 Tobias Figueiredo D
4 J. Worrall D
8 B. Watson M
19 S. Ameobi F
28 Tiago Silva M
17 Alfa Semedo M
11 M. Cash M
14 Rafa Mir F
Bench (7)
23 J. Lolley
7 L. Grabban
37 A. Adomah
13 J. Bostock
36 Chema Rodríguez
49 A. Murić
10 João Carvalho

Coach: S. Lamouchi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,53
U ✓
3,12
B
2,96
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,27
U2,5
1,64
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Brooks · 175 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.