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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Liverpool

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Watford

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,2

Scored

2,8

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 50%

94%

Points per game

2,9

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

88%

44%

Both score Ø 60%

81%

38%

Average goals

3,4

2,4

Scored

2,5

0,6

Conceded

0,9

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

67% Possession 33%

16 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

5 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 1. · Watford 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	15	1	0	+26	46
2	Leicester	16	12	2	2	+29	38
3	Man City	16	10	2	4	+25	32
4	Chelsea	16	9	2	5	+7	29
5	Man United	16	6	6	4	+6	24
6	Wolves	16	5	9	2	+4	24
7	Tottenham	16	6	5	5	+7	23
8	Sheffield United	16	5	7	4	+3	22
9	Arsenal	16	5	7	4	+0	22
10	Crystal Palace	16	6	4	6	-4	22
11	Newcastle	16	6	4	6	-6	22
12	Brighton	16	5	4	7	-4	19
13	Burnley	16	5	3	8	-8	18
14	Everton	16	5	2	9	-9	17
15	Bournemouth	16	4	4	8	-6	16
16	West Ham	16	4	4	8	-10	16
17	Aston Villa	16	4	3	9	-5	15
18	Southampton	16	4	3	9	-17	15
19	Norwich	16	3	2	11	-17	11
20	Watford	16	1	6	9	-21	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	8	0	0	+15	24
2	Leicester	8	7	1	0	+14	22
3	Tottenham	8	5	2	1	+12	17
4	Man City	8	5	1	2	+14	16
5	Man United	8	4	3	1	+7	15
6	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Arsenal	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Wolves	8	3	4	1	+2	13
9	Newcastle	8	3	4	1	+2	13
10	Everton	8	4	1	3	+0	13
11	Brighton	8	3	3	2	+2	12
12	Burnley	8	4	0	4	-1	12
13	Aston Villa	8	3	2	3	+0	11
14	Crystal Palace	8	3	2	3	-1	11
15	Sheffield United	8	3	1	4	+0	10
16	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-3	9
17	West Ham	8	2	1	5	-6	7
18	Norwich	8	2	1	5	-7	7
19	Southampton	8	2	1	5	-14	7
20	Watford	8	0	4	4	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+11	22
2	Leicester	8	5	1	2	+15	16
3	Man City	8	5	1	2	+11	16
4	Chelsea	8	5	0	3	+3	15
5	Sheffield United	8	2	6	0	+3	12
6	Wolves	8	2	5	1	+2	11
7	Crystal Palace	8	3	2	3	-3	11
8	Man United	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	Arsenal	8	2	3	3	-2	9
10	West Ham	8	2	3	3	-4	9
11	Newcastle	8	3	0	5	-8	9
12	Southampton	8	2	2	4	-3	8
13	Bournemouth	8	2	1	5	-3	7
14	Brighton	8	2	1	5	-6	7
15	Tottenham	8	1	3	4	-5	6
16	Burnley	8	1	3	4	-7	6
17	Watford	8	1	2	5	-12	5
18	Aston Villa	8	1	1	6	-5	4
19	Everton	8	1	1	6	-9	4
20	Norwich	8	1	1	6	-10	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.