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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Derby

T S T S T

1–1

Full-time

QPR

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby QPR

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,5

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

This season — Championship · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 36%

33%

39%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

44%

78%

Both score Ø 58%

44%

72%

Average goals

2,4

3,5

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

48% Possession 52%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 14. · QPR 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	18	11	6	1	+16	39
2	Leeds	18	11	4	3	+14	37
3	Fulham	18	10	4	4	+12	34
4	Nott'm Forest	17	9	5	3	+11	32
5	Preston	18	9	4	5	+9	31
6	Swansea	18	8	6	4	+7	30
7	Sheffield Weds	19	8	5	6	+8	29
8	Bristol City	18	7	8	3	+1	29
9	Hull	18	7	5	6	+6	26
10	Millwall	18	6	7	5	-2	25
11	Brentford	17	7	3	7	+5	24
12	Cardiff	17	6	6	5	+1	24
13	Blackburn	18	7	3	8	-2	24
14	Derby	18	6	6	6	-5	24
15	Birmingham	18	7	3	8	-5	24
16	QPR	18	7	3	8	-9	24
17	Charlton	19	6	5	8	+0	23
18	Reading	17	5	3	9	-3	18
19	Huddersfield	18	4	6	8	-6	18
20	Middlesbrough	18	3	8	7	-7	17
21	Luton	18	5	2	11	-8	17
22	Wigan	18	4	4	10	-12	16
23	Stoke	18	4	2	12	-12	14
24	Barnsley	18	1	6	11	-19	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	9	7	2	0	+15	23
2	Fulham	10	6	2	2	+9	20
3	West Brom	9	5	4	0	+9	19
4	Cardiff	8	6	1	1	+8	19
5	Derby	9	5	3	1	+6	18
6	Millwall	9	5	3	1	+5	18
7	Blackburn	10	5	3	2	+4	18
8	Leeds	8	5	2	1	+5	17
9	Birmingham	8	5	1	2	+4	16
10	Sheffield Weds	9	4	4	1	+4	16
11	Hull	10	4	2	4	+3	14
12	Charlton	10	4	2	4	+2	14
13	Nott'm Forest	7	4	1	2	+4	13
14	Swansea	9	4	1	4	+2	13
15	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+2	13
16	Wigan	8	4	1	3	-1	13
17	Middlesbrough	10	3	4	3	-2	13
18	Brentford	8	3	3	2	+3	12
19	Reading	9	4	0	5	-1	12
20	QPR	10	3	3	4	-5	12
21	Luton	9	3	2	4	-1	11
22	Huddersfield	10	2	4	4	-2	10
23	Stoke	9	2	1	6	-6	7
24	Barnsley	9	1	4	4	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	10	6	2	2	+9	20
2	West Brom	9	6	2	1	+7	20
3	Nott'm Forest	10	5	4	1	+7	19
4	Swansea	9	4	5	0	+5	17
5	Bristol City	10	4	4	2	-1	16
6	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+3	14
7	Sheffield Weds	10	4	1	5	+4	13
8	Hull	8	3	3	2	+3	12
9	Brentford	9	4	0	5	+2	12
10	QPR	8	4	0	4	-4	12
11	Charlton	9	2	3	4	-2	9
12	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Preston	9	2	2	5	-6	8
14	Birmingham	10	2	2	6	-9	8
15	Stoke	9	2	1	6	-6	7
16	Millwall	9	1	4	4	-7	7
17	Reading	8	1	3	4	-2	6
18	Blackburn	8	2	0	6	-6	6
19	Luton	9	2	0	7	-7	6
20	Derby	9	1	3	5	-11	6
21	Cardiff	9	0	5	4	-7	5
22	Middlesbrough	8	0	4	4	-5	4
23	Wigan	10	0	3	7	-11	3
24	Barnsley	9	0	2	7	-12	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.