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Serie A
Referee: M Di Bello
Napoli
T U U T U
1–2
Full-time
Parma
U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Parma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
2,3
1,8
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,2
This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 37%
33%
40%
Points per game
1,4
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
47%
40%
Both score Ø 57%
67%
47%
Average goals
2,9
2,6
Scored
1,6
1,4
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

72% Possession 28%
22 Shots 7
9 Shots on target 5
9 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 7
11 Corners 1
2 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Napoli 7. · Parma 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 15 12 2 1 +18 38
2 Juventus 15 11 3 1 +11 36
3 Lazio 15 10 3 2 +21 33
4 Cagliari 15 8 5 2 +12 29
5 Roma 15 8 5 2 +11 29
6 Atalanta 15 8 4 3 +14 28
7 Napoli 15 5 6 4 +5 21
8 Parma 15 6 3 6 +3 21
9 Torino 15 6 2 7 -3 20
10 Milan 15 6 2 7 -3 20
11 Verona 15 5 3 7 -3 18
12 Bologna 15 4 4 7 -4 16
13 Fiorentina 15 4 4 7 -4 16
14 Sassuolo 14 4 3 7 -1 15
15 Lecce 16 3 6 7 -12 15
16 Udinese 15 4 3 8 -14 15
17 Brescia 15 4 1 10 -12 13
18 Sampdoria 15 3 3 9 -13 12
19 Genoa 15 2 5 8 -13 11
20 Spal 15 2 3 10 -13 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Napoli Parma
4′
Dejan Kulusevski 0–1
Sebastiano Luperto 🔁
↦ Kalidou Koulibaly
5′
9′
🟨 Gervinho
17′
🔁 Mattia Sprocati
↦ Andreas Cornelius
Half-time 0–1
63′
🟨 Riccardo Gagliolo
Dries Mertens 🔁
↦ Allan
63′
1–1 Arkadiusz Milik
Dries Mertens
64′
66′
🔁 Alberto Grassi
↦ Antonino Barillà
78′
🔁 Giuseppe Pezzella
↦ Mattia Sprocati
Dries Mertens 🟨
79′
Hirving Lozano 🔁
↦ Lorenzo Insigne
79′
Arkadiusz Milik 🟨
81′
90′
Gervinho 1–2
Dejan Kulusevski
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Napoli

4-3-3
1 Alex Meret G
22 Giovanni Di Lorenzo D
44 Konstantinos Manolas D
26 Kalidou Koulibaly D
6 Mário Rui D
8 Fabián Ruiz M
5 Allan M
20 Piotr Zieliński M
7 José Callejón F
99 Arkadiusz Milik F
24 Lorenzo Insigne F
Bench (11)
25 David Ospina
27 Orestis Karnezis
23 Elseid Hysaj
13 Sebastiano Luperto
12 Eljif Elmas
70 Gianluca Gaetano
98 Leandrinho
34 Amin Younes
9 Fernando Llorente
14 Dries Mertens
11 Hirving Lozano

Coach: G. Gattuso

Parma

4-3-3
1 Luigi Sepe G
36 Matteo Darmian D
2 Simone Iacoponi D
22 Bruno Alves D
28 Riccardo Gagliolo D
10 Hernani M
15 Gastón Brugman M
17 Antonino Barillà M
44 Dejan Kulusevski F
11 Andreas Cornelius F
27 Gervinho F
Bench (8)
53 Fabrizio Alastra
34 Simone Colombi
3 Kastriot Dermaku
16 Vincent Laurini
97 Giuseppe Pezzella
8 Alberto Grassi
93 Mattia Sprocati
88 Andrea Adorante

Coach: R. D'Aversa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,31
U
5,50
B ✓
9,72
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,51
U2,5
2,51
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Di Bello · 127 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.