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Championship

Referee: S Martin

Derby

T S T U T

1–1

Full-time

Sheffield Weds

U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Sheffield Weds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

17%

100%

Average goals

1,7

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

This season — Championship · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 38%

30%

45%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

40%

45%

Both score Ø 53%

45%

60%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%

11 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 12

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Derby 16. · Sheffield Weds 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	21	14	4	3	+22	46
2	West Brom	20	13	6	1	+21	45
3	Bristol City	21	9	8	4	+4	35
4	Fulham	20	10	4	6	+10	34
5	Nott'm Forest	20	9	7	4	+10	34
6	Preston	21	10	4	7	+7	34
7	Sheffield Weds	20	9	5	6	+9	32
8	Cardiff	19	8	6	5	+3	30
9	Swansea	19	8	6	5	+3	30
10	Blackburn	20	9	3	8	+0	30
11	Millwall	21	7	9	5	-1	30
12	Hull	21	8	5	8	+3	29
13	Birmingham	20	8	4	8	-4	28
14	QPR	20	8	4	8	-7	28
15	Brentford	19	8	3	8	+11	27
16	Derby	20	6	7	7	-6	25
17	Charlton	21	6	5	10	-2	23
18	Reading	19	6	3	10	-2	21
19	Huddersfield	21	5	6	10	-10	21
20	Middlesbrough	21	4	9	8	-10	21
21	Luton	21	6	2	13	-17	20
22	Stoke	21	5	2	14	-11	17
23	Wigan	20	4	4	12	-15	16
24	Barnsley	20	2	6	12	-18	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	11	8	2	1	+15	26
2	Leeds	10	7	2	1	+11	23
3	West Brom	10	6	4	0	+13	22
4	Cardiff	9	7	1	1	+9	22
5	Blackburn	11	6	3	2	+5	21
6	Fulham	11	6	2	3	+8	20
7	Derby	10	5	4	1	+6	19
8	Millwall	10	5	4	1	+5	19
9	Sheffield Weds	10	5	4	1	+5	19
10	Hull	11	5	2	4	+4	17
11	Birmingham	9	5	2	2	+4	17
12	Bristol City	10	4	4	2	+4	16
13	Middlesbrough	11	4	4	3	-1	16
14	Brentford	9	4	3	2	+10	15
15	QPR	11	4	3	4	-3	15
16	Nott'm Forest	9	4	2	3	+3	14
17	Charlton	11	4	2	5	+1	14
18	Luton	10	4	2	4	+0	14
19	Swansea	9	4	1	4	+2	13
20	Wigan	9	4	1	4	-3	13
21	Reading	10	4	0	6	-2	12
22	Stoke	11	3	1	7	-4	10
23	Huddersfield	11	2	4	5	-4	10
24	Barnsley	10	2	4	4	-5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	11	7	2	2	+11	23
2	West Brom	10	7	2	1	+8	23
3	Nott'm Forest	11	5	5	1	+7	20
4	Bristol City	11	5	4	2	+0	19
5	Swansea	10	4	5	1	+1	17
6	Fulham	9	4	2	3	+2	14
7	Sheffield Weds	10	4	1	5	+4	13
8	QPR	9	4	1	4	-4	13
9	Brentford	10	4	0	6	+1	12
10	Hull	10	3	3	4	-1	12
11	Huddersfield	10	3	2	5	-6	11
12	Millwall	11	2	5	4	-6	11
13	Birmingham	11	3	2	6	-8	11
14	Reading	9	2	3	4	+0	9
15	Charlton	10	2	3	5	-3	9
16	Blackburn	9	3	0	6	-5	9
17	Cardiff	10	1	5	4	-6	8
18	Preston	10	2	2	6	-8	8
19	Stoke	10	2	1	7	-7	7
20	Derby	10	1	3	6	-12	6
21	Luton	11	2	0	9	-17	6
22	Middlesbrough	10	0	5	5	-9	5
23	Wigan	11	0	3	8	-12	3
24	Barnsley	10	0	2	8	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.