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Championship

Referee: Oliver Langford

Millwall

U S T U S

0–0

Full-time

Derby

U S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,2

This season — Championship · 28/27 matches

Win Ø 43%

29%

56%

Points per game

1,2

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

46%

44%

Both score Ø 44%

46%

41%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

13 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 15. · Derby 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	29	20	5	4	+29	65
2	Derby	27	15	7	5	+21	52
3	Cardiff	28	15	6	7	+15	51
4	Bristol City	29	14	9	6	+10	51
5	Fulham	27	13	8	6	+15	47
6	Sheffield United	28	14	4	10	+10	46
7	Aston Villa	25	12	7	6	+15	43
8	Middlesbrough	26	13	4	9	+12	43
9	Leeds	28	13	4	11	+7	43
10	Brentford	29	11	10	8	+6	43
11	Preston	28	10	12	6	+4	42
12	Ipswich	29	12	4	13	+0	40
13	Norwich	29	11	7	11	-4	40
14	Nott'm Forest	28	11	2	15	-8	35
15	Millwall	28	8	10	10	+0	34
16	QPR	29	8	9	12	-11	33
17	Sheffield Weds	28	7	11	10	-4	32
18	Reading	28	7	8	13	-6	29
19	Barnsley	29	6	9	14	-14	27
20	Bolton	28	6	8	14	-20	26
21	Hull	28	5	10	13	-6	25
22	Sunderland	28	5	10	13	-17	25
23	Birmingham	28	6	6	16	-23	24
24	Burton Albion	28	6	6	16	-31	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	14	10	2	2	+16	32
2	Cardiff	14	9	3	2	+16	30
3	Derby	14	8	3	3	+13	27
4	Bristol City	15	8	3	4	+8	27
5	Sheffield United	14	8	2	4	+10	26
6	Ipswich	15	8	2	5	+9	26
7	Aston Villa	12	7	4	1	+13	25
8	Brentford	15	6	7	2	+8	25
9	Millwall	14	7	4	3	+8	25
10	Fulham	13	6	5	2	+10	23
11	Middlesbrough	13	7	2	4	+5	23
12	Leeds	14	6	4	4	+7	22
13	QPR	14	6	4	4	+0	22
14	Preston	14	5	6	3	+3	21
15	Nott'm Forest	14	7	0	7	-1	21
16	Sheffield Weds	14	4	6	4	+0	18
17	Bolton	14	5	3	6	-3	18
18	Hull	14	4	5	5	+7	17
19	Norwich	14	4	5	5	-1	17
20	Birmingham	14	5	2	7	-8	17
21	Barnsley	15	3	5	7	-7	14
22	Reading	14	3	4	7	-4	13
23	Sunderland	14	2	5	7	-7	11
24	Burton Albion	14	2	2	10	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	15	10	3	2	+13	33
2	Derby	13	7	4	2	+8	25
3	Fulham	14	7	3	4	+5	24
4	Bristol City	14	6	6	2	+2	24
5	Norwich	15	7	2	6	-3	23
6	Preston	14	5	6	3	+1	21
7	Leeds	14	7	0	7	+0	21
8	Cardiff	14	6	3	5	-1	21
9	Middlesbrough	13	6	2	5	+7	20
10	Sheffield United	14	6	2	6	+0	20
11	Aston Villa	13	5	3	5	+2	18
12	Brentford	14	5	3	6	-2	18
13	Reading	14	4	4	6	-2	16
14	Burton Albion	14	4	4	6	-13	16
15	Sheffield Weds	14	3	5	6	-4	14
16	Nott'm Forest	14	4	2	8	-7	14
17	Ipswich	14	4	2	8	-9	14
18	Sunderland	14	3	5	6	-10	14
19	Barnsley	14	3	4	7	-7	13
20	QPR	15	2	5	8	-11	11
21	Millwall	14	1	6	7	-8	9
22	Hull	14	1	5	8	-13	8
23	Bolton	14	1	5	8	-17	8
24	Birmingham	14	1	4	9	-15	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.