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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

Derby

T S T S T

1–0

Full-time

Preston

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Preston

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,2

This season — Championship · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 44%

31%

56%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

44%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,9

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

13 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 16. · Preston 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	16	9	6	1	+12	33
2	Preston	16	9	4	3	+14	31
3	Leeds	16	9	4	3	+12	31
4	Swansea	15	8	5	2	+9	29
5	Fulham	16	8	4	4	+8	28
6	Nott'm Forest	15	8	4	3	+7	28
7	Bristol City	16	7	7	2	+4	28
8	Sheffield Weds	16	7	4	5	+7	25
9	QPR	17	7	3	7	-5	24
10	Charlton	17	6	5	6	+3	23
11	Hull	16	6	4	6	+2	22
12	Birmingham	16	7	1	8	-5	22
13	Brentford	15	6	3	6	+5	21
14	Cardiff	16	5	6	5	+0	21
15	Millwall	16	5	6	5	-3	21
16	Derby	16	5	6	5	-3	21
17	Reading	15	5	3	7	-1	18
18	Blackburn	16	5	3	8	-4	18
19	Huddersfield	16	4	4	8	-6	16
20	Wigan	16	4	3	9	-11	15
21	Luton	16	4	2	10	-8	14
22	Middlesbrough	16	2	7	7	-8	13
23	Stoke	16	3	2	11	-12	11
24	Barnsley	16	1	6	9	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	9	7	2	0	+15	23
2	Fulham	9	5	2	2	+6	17
3	Millwall	8	5	2	1	+5	17
4	Leeds	8	5	2	1	+5	17
5	Cardiff	7	5	1	1	+7	16
6	Birmingham	8	5	1	2	+4	16
7	Derby	8	4	3	1	+5	15
8	Sheffield Weds	8	4	3	1	+4	15
9	Charlton	9	4	2	3	+4	14
10	West Brom	7	3	4	0	+5	13
11	Swansea	7	4	1	2	+4	13
12	Nott'm Forest	7	4	1	2	+4	13
13	Wigan	8	4	1	3	-1	13
14	Blackburn	8	3	3	2	+2	12
15	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+2	12
16	Reading	8	4	0	4	+0	12
17	QPR	9	3	3	3	-1	12
18	Hull	9	3	2	4	-1	11
19	Brentford	7	2	3	2	+2	9
20	Middlesbrough	8	2	3	3	-3	9
21	Luton	7	2	2	3	-1	8
22	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-2	8
23	Barnsley	9	1	4	4	-7	7
24	Stoke	8	1	1	6	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	9	6	2	1	+7	20
2	Swansea	8	4	4	0	+5	16
3	Bristol City	9	4	4	1	+2	16
4	Nott'm Forest	8	4	3	1	+3	15
5	Leeds	8	4	2	2	+7	14
6	Brentford	8	4	0	4	+3	12
7	QPR	8	4	0	4	-4	12
8	Hull	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	Fulham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Sheffield Weds	8	3	1	4	+3	10
11	Charlton	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Preston	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Stoke	8	2	1	5	-5	7
15	Reading	7	1	3	3	-1	6
16	Blackburn	8	2	0	6	-6	6
17	Luton	9	2	0	7	-7	6
18	Derby	8	1	3	4	-8	6
19	Birmingham	8	2	0	6	-9	6
20	Cardiff	9	0	5	4	-7	5
21	Middlesbrough	8	0	4	4	-5	4
22	Millwall	8	0	4	4	-8	4
23	Wigan	8	0	2	6	-10	2
24	Barnsley	7	0	2	5	-10	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.