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Championship

Referee: Steve Martin

Millwall

T T S U U

2–1

Full-time

Derby

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

This season — Championship · 2/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

28% Possession 72%

12 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 10

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 16. · Derby 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Bolton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Wigan	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Preston	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Sheffield United	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	-3	3
14	Bristol City	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Blackburn	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Millwall	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Birmingham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-2	1
22	Hull	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Reading	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	QPR	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Hull	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
2	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
7	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.