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Championship

Referee: England Darren

Derby

S T S S S

3–0

Full-time

Millwall

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,3

This season — Championship · 21/22 matches

Win Ø 42%

57%

27%

Points per game

1,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

43%

41%

Both score Ø 42%

43%

41%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 11

4 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 4. · Millwall 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	22	16	3	3	+25	51
2	Cardiff	22	14	5	3	+17	47
3	Bristol City	22	12	7	3	+13	43
4	Derby	21	12	4	5	+14	40
5	Sheffield United	22	12	1	9	+7	37
6	Leeds	22	11	3	8	+8	36
7	Ipswich	22	11	2	9	+5	35
8	Preston	22	9	8	5	+4	35
9	Aston Villa	20	9	6	5	+8	33
10	Middlesbrough	21	9	4	8	+6	31
11	Brentford	23	7	10	6	+4	31
12	Nott'm Forest	22	10	0	12	-5	30
13	Fulham	20	7	7	6	+0	28
14	Reading	22	7	6	9	+0	27
15	Sheffield Weds	22	6	9	7	-1	27
16	Norwich	23	7	6	10	-8	27
17	Millwall	22	6	8	8	+2	26
18	QPR	22	6	7	9	-8	25
19	Hull	22	5	7	10	-3	22
20	Barnsley	22	5	6	11	-10	21
21	Sunderland	22	3	9	10	-11	18
22	Burton Albion	22	4	5	13	-26	17
23	Bolton	22	3	7	12	-20	16
24	Birmingham	22	4	4	14	-21	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	11	8	3	0	+15	27
2	Wolves	11	8	2	1	+14	26
3	Ipswich	11	7	1	3	+10	22
4	Derby	11	7	1	3	+10	22
5	Sheffield United	11	7	1	3	+8	22
6	Bristol City	11	6	3	2	+6	21
7	Nott'm Forest	11	7	0	4	+4	21
8	Millwall	11	6	2	3	+7	20
9	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	+4	20
10	Preston	11	5	4	2	+4	19
11	Leeds	11	5	3	3	+7	18
12	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+6	18
13	QPR	11	5	3	3	+2	18
14	Sheffield Weds	11	4	5	2	+4	17
15	Brentford	11	3	7	1	+4	16
16	Hull	11	4	2	5	+7	14
17	Fulham	10	3	5	2	+0	14
18	Norwich	12	3	5	4	-1	14
19	Birmingham	11	4	2	5	-4	14
20	Reading	11	3	4	4	+0	13
21	Barnsley	11	3	2	6	-5	11
22	Bolton	11	3	2	6	-6	11
23	Sunderland	11	1	4	6	-7	7
24	Burton Albion	11	2	1	8	-15	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Bristol City	11	6	4	1	+7	22
3	Cardiff	11	6	2	3	+2	20
4	Derby	10	5	3	2	+4	18
5	Leeds	11	6	0	5	+1	18
6	Preston	11	4	4	3	+0	16
7	Aston Villa	11	4	3	4	+2	15
8	Brentford	12	4	3	5	+0	15
9	Sheffield United	11	5	0	6	-1	15
10	Fulham	10	4	2	4	+0	14
11	Reading	11	4	2	5	+0	14
12	Ipswich	11	4	1	6	-5	13
13	Norwich	11	4	1	6	-7	13
14	Middlesbrough	10	3	2	5	+2	11
15	Sunderland	11	2	5	4	-4	11
16	Barnsley	11	2	4	5	-5	10
17	Sheffield Weds	11	2	4	5	-5	10
18	Burton Albion	11	2	4	5	-11	10
19	Nott'm Forest	11	3	0	8	-9	9
20	Hull	11	1	5	5	-10	8
21	QPR	11	1	4	6	-10	7
22	Millwall	11	0	6	5	-5	6
23	Bolton	11	0	5	6	-14	5
24	Birmingham	11	0	2	9	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.