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Taça de Portugal

Referee: A Nobre

Sp Lisbon

U U S S S

1–2

Full-time

Torreense

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Torreense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Taça de Portugal · 6/7 matches

Win Ø 77%

83%

71%

Points per game

2,7

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

67%

43%

Both score Ø 61%

50%

71%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

2,2

1,9

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,1

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

72% Possession 28%

33 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 2

13 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

20 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Torreense 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Torreense	7	5	2	0	+8	17
2	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+7	16
3	Fafe	7	5	1	1	+3	16
4	Porto	6	4	1	1	+10	13
5	Lusitano Évora 1911	5	4	0	1	+11	12
6	Vila Meã	5	4	0	1	+7	12
7	Caldas	5	3	1	1	+5	10
8	União de Leiria	5	3	1	1	+3	10
9	Farense	4	3	0	1	+7	9
10	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+5	9
11	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+5	9
12	Comércio Indústria	4	3	0	1	+3	9
13	AVS	4	2	1	1	+7	7
14	Espinho	3	2	1	0	+5	7
15	Academico Viseu	3	2	1	0	+4	7
16	1º Dezembro	4	2	1	1	+0	7
17	Mortágua	4	2	1	1	-1	7
18	Lusitânia Lourosa	3	2	0	1	+6	6
19	Alpendorada	3	2	0	1	+5	6
20	Casa Pia	3	2	0	1	+5	6
21	CD Olivais e Moscavide	3	2	0	1	+4	6
22	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+4	6
23	Amarante	3	2	0	1	+2	6
24	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
25	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
26	Famalicao	3	2	0	1	+1	6
27	Leixoes	3	2	0	1	+1	6
28	Vila Caíz	3	2	0	1	+1	6
29	Atlético CP	3	2	0	1	+1	6
30	Vila Real	3	2	0	1	-1	6
31	Sintrense	3	2	0	1	-1	6
32	AD Marco 09	3	2	0	1	-1	6
33	Silves	3	2	0	1	-2	6
34	Celoricense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
35	Marinhense	4	1	2	1	+3	5
36	Anadia	3	1	2	0	+1	5
37	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
38	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+6	4
39	Tondela	2	1	1	0	+4	4
40	Moncarapachense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
41	Gouveia	2	1	1	0	+2	4
42	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+2	4
43	Oliveirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
44	Os Marialvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
45	SC Covilha	3	1	1	1	-1	4
46	Peniche	2	1	0	1	+7	3
47	Sacavenense	2	1	0	1	+5	3
48	Atlético Malveira	2	1	0	1	+5	3
49	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+4	3
50	Bragança	2	1	0	1	+4	3
51	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
52	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
53	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
54	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+2	3
55	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
56	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
57	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
58	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Correlhã	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Chaves	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	União Lamas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Uniao Nogueirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
70	Nazarenos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
71	Ançã	2	1	0	1	-1	3
72	Monção	2	1	0	1	-1	3
73	Machico	2	1	0	1	-1	3
74	Resende	2	1	0	1	-1	3
75	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	2	1	0	1	-3	3
76	Brito	2	1	0	1	-4	3
77	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
78	AD Fornos Algodres	2	1	0	1	-5	3
79	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Rebordelo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
84	Portimonense B	2	0	1	1	-2	1
85	Charneca Caparica	2	0	1	1	-2	1
86	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Mafra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
135	Almodôvar	1	0	0	1	-4	0
136	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
137	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
138	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
139	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
140	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
141	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
142	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
143	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
144	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
145	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
146	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0
147	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
148	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Fafe	4	3	1	0	+3	10
3	Comércio Indústria	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Caldas	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	9
6	Torreense	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Alpendorada	3	2	0	1	+5	6
8	Lusitano Évora 1911	3	2	0	1	+3	6
9	Sintrense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Silves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Vila Caíz	2	2	0	0	+2	6
13	Vila Meã	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	Atlético CP	3	2	0	1	+1	6
15	Celoricense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
16	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
17	Marinhense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
18	Espinho	2	1	1	0	+4	4
19	Moncarapachense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
20	Mortágua	2	1	1	0	+2	4
21	Peniche	2	1	0	1	+7	3
22	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+6	3
23	Sacavenense	2	1	0	1	+5	3
24	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
25	Bragança	2	1	0	1	+4	3
26	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
27	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+3	3
28	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
29	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	+2	3
30	Farense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
31	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Gouveia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
35	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Amarante	2	1	0	1	+1	3
39	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
41	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Uniao Nogueirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Correlhã	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	União Lamas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Nazarenos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Ançã	2	1	0	1	-1	3
49	SC Covilha	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	AD Marco 09	2	1	0	1	-2	3
51	Vila Real	2	1	0	1	-3	3
52	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
53	AD Fornos Algodres	2	1	0	1	-5	3
54	União de Leiria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Portimonense B	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Charneca Caparica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Rebordelo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
61	1º Dezembro	2	0	1	1	-2	1
62	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Monção	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
87	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
88	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
89	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
90	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Torreense	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	União de Leiria	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	2	0	0	+8	6
6	AVS	3	2	0	1	+7	6
7	Vila Meã	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Casa Pia	2	2	0	0	+6	6
9	Farense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+3	6
11	1º Dezembro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Famalicao	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	Leixoes	3	2	0	1	+1	6
15	Fafe	3	2	0	1	+0	6
16	Academico Viseu	2	1	1	0	+3	4
17	Oliveirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
18	Anadia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	Os Marialvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	Atlético Malveira	2	1	0	1	+5	3
21	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+5	3
22	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+4	3
23	Porto	2	1	0	1	+3	3
24	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	1	0	1	+2	3
25	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
26	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
27	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Machico	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Monção	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Espinho	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	-3	3
42	Brito	2	1	0	1	-4	3
43	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Gouveia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Marinhense	2	0	1	1	-3	1
53	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	FC Serpa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Uniao Nogueirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Mafra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Charneca Caparica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Portimonense B	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Resende	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	Sintrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
96	Silves	1	0	0	1	-4	0
97	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
98	Almodôvar	1	0	0	1	-4	0
99	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
100	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
101	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
102	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
103	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
104	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
105	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
106	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.