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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Estrela

T U T S U

1–2

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

1,2

2,7

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 54%

23%

84%

Points per game

1,0

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

42%

76%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

60%

Average goals

2,5

4,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,22 xG 1,93

38% Possession 62%

6 Shots 21

3 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 7

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 7

5 Offside 2

20 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 13. · Sp Lisbon 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	27	21	4	2	+40	+33.3	67
2	Sp Lisbon	25	21	2	2	+50	+35.1	65
3	Porto	26	18	4	4	+32	+24.8	58
4	Sp Braga	26	16	5	5	+21	+16.4	53
5	Guimaraes	26	15	5	6	+14	+7.7	50
6	Moreirense	26	12	6	8	+1	+0.8	42
7	Arouca	26	10	4	12	+6	-1.3	34
8	Famalicao	26	7	10	9	-5	-7.1	31
9	Gil Vicente	27	7	7	13	-5	-7.0	28
10	Boavista	26	7	7	12	-18	-14.4	28
11	Farense	26	7	6	13	-4	-9.7	27
12	Casa Pia	26	7	6	13	-16	-10.7	27
13	Estrela	26	6	8	12	-13	-8.6	26
14	Estoril	26	7	4	15	-7	-10.2	25
15	Rio Ave	26	4	13	9	-9	+1.0	25
16	Portimonense	26	6	5	15	-29	-18.4	23
17	Vizela	26	4	9	13	-26	-11.8	21
18	Chaves	27	4	7	16	-32	-19.9	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	13	0	0	+36	+23.8	39
2	Benfica	14	12	2	0	+31	+25.0	38
3	Porto	13	10	2	1	+22	+20.1	32
4	Guimaraes	13	9	1	3	+12	+10.5	28
5	Sp Braga	13	8	3	2	+15	+18.1	27
6	Gil Vicente	14	5	6	3	+8	-4.1	21
7	Moreirense	13	6	3	4	+1	+1.1	21
8	Estoril	13	6	1	6	+7	+1.3	19
9	Rio Ave	13	4	6	3	+1	+5.1	18
10	Arouca	13	5	2	6	+0	-1.6	17
11	Famalicao	12	4	5	3	-1	-1.1	17
12	Estrela	13	5	2	6	-2	-2.5	17
13	Farense	13	4	4	5	+2	+0.4	16
14	Boavista	13	4	4	5	-9	-3.8	16
15	Portimonense	13	3	4	6	-9	-6.6	13
16	Chaves	13	3	3	7	-11	-4.6	12
17	Casa Pia	13	2	4	7	-8	-3.1	10
18	Vizela	13	2	4	7	-11	-1.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	13	9	2	2	+9	+8.3	29
2	Sp Lisbon	12	8	2	2	+14	+11.3	26
3	Porto	13	8	2	3	+10	+4.6	26
4	Sp Braga	13	8	2	3	+6	-1.6	26
5	Guimaraes	13	6	4	3	+2	-2.8	22
6	Moreirense	13	6	3	4	+0	-0.4	21
7	Arouca	13	5	2	6	+6	+0.3	17
8	Casa Pia	13	5	2	6	-8	-7.7	17
9	Famalicao	14	3	5	6	-4	-6.0	14
10	Boavista	13	3	3	7	-9	-10.7	12
11	Farense	13	3	2	8	-6	-10.0	11
12	Vizela	13	2	5	6	-15	-10.6	11
13	Portimonense	13	3	1	9	-20	-11.8	10
14	Estrela	13	1	6	6	-11	-6.2	9
15	Rio Ave	13	0	7	6	-10	-4.1	7
16	Gil Vicente	13	2	1	10	-13	-2.9	7
17	Chaves	14	1	4	9	-21	-15.2	7
18	Estoril	13	1	3	9	-14	-11.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.