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Primeira Liga

Referee: A Nobre

Sp Lisbon

U T U U U

5–1

Full-time

Guimaraes

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 55%

71%

39%

Points per game

2,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

68%

45%

Both score Ø 49%

55%

42%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

4,22 xG 0,52

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 13

10 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

1 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Guimaraes 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	32	27	4	1	+49	+37.4	85
2	Benfica	32	22	10	0	+47	+36.3	76
3	Sp Lisbon	31	22	7	2	+55	+40.2	73
4	Sp Braga	32	16	9	7	+28	+21.1	57
5	Famalicao	32	14	10	8	+12	+10.2	52
6	Gil Vicente	32	13	11	8	+14	+9.7	50
7	Guimaraes	31	12	6	13	-5	-3.0	42
8	Moreirense	32	12	6	14	-10	-18.1	42
9	Estoril	32	10	8	14	-1	-9.5	38
10	Alverca	32	10	8	14	-16	-1.3	38
11	Arouca	32	10	6	16	-21	-19.4	36
12	Rio Ave	32	8	11	13	-19	-15.8	35
13	Santa Clara	32	8	9	15	-10	+0.8	33
14	Nacional	32	8	7	17	-8	-12.0	31
15	Estrela	32	6	10	16	-18	-9.3	28
16	Casa Pia	32	5	11	16	-27	-25.3	26
17	Tondela	32	5	10	17	-28	-12.5	25
18	AVS	32	2	11	19	-42	-29.4	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	16	13	3	0	+26	+21.3	42
2	Benfica	16	11	5	0	+28	+23.7	38
3	Sp Lisbon	15	11	2	2	+33	+24.2	35
4	Gil Vicente	16	9	3	4	+13	+7.0	30
5	Sp Braga	16	8	5	3	+16	+13.6	29
6	Famalicao	16	8	4	4	+14	+9.7	28
7	Guimaraes	16	8	4	4	+8	-0.5	28
8	Moreirense	16	8	2	6	-1	-8.1	26
9	Alverca	16	7	4	5	-5	+6.1	25
10	Estoril	16	6	5	5	+5	-5.2	23
11	Arouca	16	6	4	6	-5	-7.0	22
12	Santa Clara	16	6	2	8	-2	+4.0	20
13	Nacional	16	5	2	9	-2	-3.7	17
14	Estrela	16	4	5	7	-3	+1.8	17
15	Rio Ave	16	3	6	7	-9	-2.2	15
16	Casa Pia	16	2	8	6	-8	-11.2	14
17	Tondela	16	1	7	8	-10	-4.7	10
18	AVS	16	1	6	9	-14	-12.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	1	1	+23	+16.1	43
2	Sp Lisbon	16	11	5	0	+22	+16.1	38
3	Benfica	16	11	5	0	+19	+12.7	38
4	Sp Braga	16	8	4	4	+12	+7.5	28
5	Famalicao	16	6	6	4	-2	+0.5	24
6	Gil Vicente	16	4	8	4	+1	+2.7	20
7	Rio Ave	16	5	5	6	-10	-13.6	20
8	Moreirense	16	4	4	8	-9	-10.0	16
9	Estoril	16	4	3	9	-6	-4.3	15
10	Tondela	16	4	3	9	-18	-7.8	15
11	Nacional	16	3	5	8	-6	-8.4	14
12	Guimaraes	15	4	2	9	-13	-2.6	14
13	Arouca	16	4	2	10	-16	-12.4	14
14	Santa Clara	16	2	7	7	-8	-3.1	13
15	Alverca	16	3	4	9	-11	-7.4	13
16	Casa Pia	16	3	3	10	-19	-14.2	12
17	Estrela	16	2	5	9	-15	-11.1	11
18	AVS	16	1	5	10	-28	-16.9	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.