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Primeira Liga

Referee: S Guelho

Arouca

T T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Estrela

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 26%

31%

21%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

66%

52%

Both score Ø 49%

52%

45%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,01 xG 1,25

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 11

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 12. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	29	24	4	1	+45	+34.5	76
2	Sp Lisbon	28	22	5	1	+56	+38.8	71
3	Benfica	29	20	9	0	+43	+34.6	69
4	Sp Braga	28	15	7	6	+28	+22.8	52
5	Famalicao	29	13	8	8	+11	+10.9	47
6	Gil Vicente	30	12	10	8	+13	+10.2	46
7	Guimaraes	30	11	6	13	-7	-3.6	39
8	Estoril	29	10	7	12	+1	-9.1	37
9	Moreirense	29	10	6	13	-9	-16.4	36
10	Alverca	30	9	8	13	-16	-1.7	35
11	Rio Ave	30	8	10	12	-17	-16.2	34
12	Arouca	29	9	5	15	-21	-17.9	32
13	Santa Clara	30	7	8	15	-11	-2.6	29
14	Nacional	30	7	7	16	-9	-12.1	28
15	Estrela	29	6	10	13	-15	-10.4	28
16	Casa Pia	29	5	11	13	-24	-24.2	26
17	Tondela	28	4	9	15	-25	-10.2	21
18	AVS	30	1	10	19	-43	-27.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	14	11	3	0	+23	+18.6	36
2	Benfica	15	10	5	0	+25	+22.5	35
3	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+34	+24.4	34
4	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+16	+12.9	27
5	Famalicao	15	8	3	4	+14	+9.7	27
6	Gil Vicente	15	8	3	4	+12	+6.5	27
7	Guimaraes	15	7	4	4	+6	-1.0	25
8	Estoril	15	6	5	4	+6	-4.8	23
9	Alverca	15	6	4	5	-6	+6.0	22
10	Moreirense	14	6	2	6	-3	-7.6	20
11	Arouca	14	5	3	6	-6	-5.7	18
12	Nacional	15	5	2	8	-1	-3.8	17
13	Estrela	15	4	5	6	-2	+2.0	17
14	Santa Clara	15	5	2	8	-3	+1.6	17
15	Casa Pia	14	2	8	4	-6	-10.5	14
16	Rio Ave	15	3	5	7	-9	-3.1	14
17	Tondela	15	1	7	7	-8	-4.8	10
18	AVS	15	1	5	9	-14	-10.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	1	1	+22	+15.9	40
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	4	0	+22	+14.4	37
3	Benfica	14	10	4	0	+18	+12.0	34
4	Sp Braga	14	7	4	3	+12	+9.9	25
5	Famalicao	14	5	5	4	-3	+1.2	20
6	Rio Ave	15	5	5	5	-8	-13.1	20
7	Gil Vicente	15	4	7	4	+1	+3.6	19
8	Moreirense	15	4	4	7	-6	-8.8	16
9	Estoril	14	4	2	8	-5	-4.3	14
10	Guimaraes	15	4	2	9	-13	-2.6	14
11	Arouca	15	4	2	9	-15	-12.2	14
12	Alverca	15	3	4	8	-10	-7.6	13
13	Santa Clara	15	2	6	7	-8	-4.2	12
14	Casa Pia	15	3	3	9	-18	-13.7	12
15	Nacional	15	2	5	8	-8	-8.3	11
16	Estrela	14	2	5	7	-13	-12.4	11
17	Tondela	13	3	2	8	-17	-5.4	11
18	AVS	15	0	5	10	-29	-16.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.