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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Vieira

Sp Lisbon

U S S S S

5–1

Full-time

Estrela

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

0,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 56%

100%

11%

Points per game

3,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

78%

56%

Both score Ø 33%

22%

44%

Average goals

3,6

2,4

Scored

3,3

0,8

Conceded

0,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+3,1

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

3,26 xG 1,83

64% Possession 36%

20 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

12 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 1. · Estrela 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	9	0	0	+28	+22.5	27
2	Porto	9	8	0	1	+19	+13.9	24
3	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+17	+11.1	19
4	Santa Clara	9	6	0	3	+3	+6.9	18
5	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+9	+5.5	17
6	Guimaraes	9	4	3	2	+1	+2.1	15
7	Moreirense	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.5	14
8	Famalicao	9	3	4	2	+2	-3.6	13
9	Casa Pia	9	3	2	4	-4	-2.8	11
10	Gil Vicente	9	2	4	3	-3	-3.3	10
11	Estoril	9	2	3	4	-4	-9.0	9
12	AVS	9	2	3	4	-9	-5.3	9
13	Rio Ave	9	2	2	5	-12	-7.0	8
14	Arouca	9	2	1	6	-12	-10.5	7
15	Boavista	9	1	3	5	-7	-3.8	6
16	Estrela	9	1	3	5	-8	-7.5	6
17	Nacional	8	1	2	5	-9	-0.8	5
18	Farense	9	1	1	7	-12	-11.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+16	+9.0	15
2	Porto	5	5	0	0	+11	+12.6	15
3	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+9	+8.8	12
4	Santa Clara	5	4	0	1	+2	+5.0	12
5	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+6	+5.2	10
6	Gil Vicente	4	2	2	0	+5	+2.5	8
7	Moreirense	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.2	8
8	Rio Ave	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.1	8
9	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.3	8
10	AVS	5	2	2	1	-3	-2.8	8
11	Casa Pia	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.2	7
12	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	-1	+1.3	7
13	Estoril	5	2	1	2	-2	-6.0	7
14	Estrela	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.2	5
15	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.7	4
16	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.7	3
17	Farense	4	1	0	3	-6	-3.6	3
18	Boavista	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+19	+13.7	15
2	Porto	4	3	0	1	+8	+1.3	9
3	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
4	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.3	7
5	Santa Clara	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.9	6
6	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-2	+3.7	6
7	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+2	-2.3	5
8	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.3	5
9	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.1	4
10	Casa Pia	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.9	4
11	Arouca	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.7	3
12	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-2	-3.0	2
13	Nacional	5	0	2	3	-3	+0.9	2
14	Gil Vicente	5	0	2	3	-8	-5.7	2
15	Estrela	4	0	1	3	-5	-4.4	1
16	AVS	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.4	1
17	Farense	5	0	1	4	-6	-8.3	1
18	Rio Ave	5	0	0	5	-14	-10.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.