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Primeira Liga

Referee: S Guelho

Porto

S S S S S

4–0

Full-time

Casa Pia

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

0,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,63 xG 0,22

65% Possession 35%

20 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 5. · Casa Pia 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+11	+7.0	9
2	Moreirense	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.1	9
3	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+4	-0.2	7
4	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.3	6
5	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.6	6
6	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.6	6
7	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.2	4
8	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-4	-3.5	4
9	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
10	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.4	3
11	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.4	2
12	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
13	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
14	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.3	1
15	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	+1.0	0
16	AVS	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.2	0
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.5	0
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.2	6
2	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.2	4
3	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
4	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+6	+2.6	3
5	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.1	3
6	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
7	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
8	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
9	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
10	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
11	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
12	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
13	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
14	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
15	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.4	0
16	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
17	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.9	0
18	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.4	6
2	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.9	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
5	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
6	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
7	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
8	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
9	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
10	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
11	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
12	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
13	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
14	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.0	0
15	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
16	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.4	0
17	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.8	0
18	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-6	-2.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.