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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Ferreira

Porto

S S S T S

3–1

Full-time

Casa Pia

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 50%

75%

25%

Points per game

2,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,81 xG 1,25

68% Possession 32%

16 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 4. · Casa Pia 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	10	1	2	+13	+11.4	31
2	Benfica	13	9	3	1	+14	+16.8	30
3	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+16	+10.5	29
4	Porto	12	9	1	2	+10	+7.0	28
5	Guimaraes	13	8	1	4	+7	+3.2	25
6	Moreirense	12	6	3	3	+4	-0.5	21
7	Farense	13	5	2	6	+4	-7.5	17
8	Famalicao	13	4	5	4	-2	-4.1	17
9	Boavista	12	4	3	5	-5	-6.1	15
10	Portimonense	13	4	3	6	-13	-6.5	15
11	Casa Pia	12	3	4	5	-4	-2.4	13
12	Estrela	12	3	3	6	-5	-2.8	12
13	Gil Vicente	12	3	2	7	-1	-6.1	11
14	Estoril	12	3	1	8	-3	-6.8	10
15	Rio Ave	12	2	4	6	-7	+2.1	10
16	Vizela	13	2	4	7	-8	-2.5	10
17	Chaves	12	3	1	8	-16	-5.0	10
18	Arouca	12	2	3	7	-4	-0.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	7	0	0	+11	+8.6	21
2	Guimaraes	7	5	0	2	+8	+5.3	15
3	Benfica	6	4	2	0	+8	+10.0	14
4	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+10	+10.5	13
5	Gil Vicente	6	3	2	1	+8	-2.3	11
6	Farense	7	3	1	3	+4	-0.3	10
7	Porto	5	3	1	1	+2	+7.9	10
8	Famalicao	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.4	10
9	Moreirense	6	2	2	2	+0	-0.1	8
10	Rio Ave	7	2	2	3	-2	+2.8	8
11	Portimonense	6	2	2	2	-3	-1.9	8
12	Boavista	7	2	2	3	-4	-2.9	8
13	Estoril	5	2	1	2	+4	+0.5	7
14	Chaves	6	2	1	3	-2	+0.4	7
15	Estrela	6	2	0	4	-3	-0.0	6
16	Casa Pia	6	1	2	3	-2	-2.1	5
17	Vizela	7	1	2	4	-5	-0.2	5
18	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-4	+0.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+8	-0.9	18
2	Sp Braga	7	5	1	1	+6	+0.0	16
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+6	+6.8	16
4	Moreirense	6	4	1	1	+4	-0.4	13
5	Sp Lisbon	6	3	1	2	+2	+2.8	10
6	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-1	-2.2	10
7	Casa Pia	6	2	2	2	-2	-0.3	8
8	Farense	6	2	1	3	+0	-7.2	7
9	Boavista	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.2	7
10	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	-1	-2.8	7
11	Portimonense	7	2	1	4	-10	-4.6	7
12	Estrela	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.8	6
13	Arouca	6	1	2	3	+0	-1.6	5
14	Vizela	6	1	2	3	-3	-2.3	5
15	Estoril	7	1	0	6	-7	-7.3	3
16	Chaves	6	1	0	5	-14	-5.3	3
17	Rio Ave	5	0	2	3	-5	-0.6	2
18	Gil Vicente	6	0	0	6	-9	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.