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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Porto

S T T T U

2–0

Full-time

Casa Pia

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

2,3

2,0

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 55%

82%

27%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

73%

27%

Both score Ø 36%

27%

45%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

2,5

0,9

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,82 xG 0,46

64% Possession 36%

17 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 3. · Casa Pia 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	11	0	1	+33	+25.2	33
2	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+23	+14.3	28
3	Porto	11	9	0	2	+20	+14.9	27
4	Santa Clara	12	8	0	4	+3	+7.9	24
5	Sp Braga	12	7	2	3	+9	+8.2	23
6	Guimaraes	12	6	3	3	+5	+1.4	21
7	Famalicao	12	4	5	3	+2	-3.9	17
8	Moreirense	12	5	2	5	+0	+3.2	17
9	Rio Ave	12	4	3	5	-9	-8.3	15
10	Casa Pia	11	3	4	4	-4	-2.4	13
11	Estoril	12	3	4	5	-7	-11.4	13
12	Boavista	12	2	4	6	-8	-1.4	10
13	Gil Vicente	12	2	4	6	-9	-6.1	10
14	AVS	12	2	4	6	-11	-7.4	10
15	Nacional	11	2	3	6	-9	-1.8	9
16	Estrela	12	2	3	7	-11	-8.2	9
17	Farense	12	2	2	8	-12	-12.1	8
18	Arouca	12	2	2	8	-15	-11.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+19	+9.9	18
2	Porto	6	6	0	0	+15	+14.5	18
3	Sp Lisbon	6	5	0	1	+12	+11.3	15
4	Santa Clara	6	5	0	1	+3	+7.5	15
5	Guimaraes	6	4	1	1	+4	+3.1	13
6	Rio Ave	6	3	3	0	+3	+3.4	12
7	Moreirense	5	3	2	0	+4	+0.1	11
8	Estoril	7	3	2	2	-1	-6.5	11
9	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+4	+5.1	10
10	Famalicao	6	2	3	1	+0	-1.6	9
11	Gil Vicente	5	2	2	1	+4	+1.5	8
12	Casa Pia	6	2	2	2	+0	+1.3	8
13	Estrela	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.8	8
14	AVS	7	2	2	3	-5	-5.8	8
15	Nacional	5	2	1	2	-4	-1.2	7
16	Farense	6	2	0	4	-6	-3.7	6
17	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.4	4
18	Boavista	5	0	1	4	-8	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+21	+13.8	18
2	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+5	+3.1	13
3	Benfica	5	3	1	1	+4	+4.3	10
4	Porto	5	3	0	2	+5	+0.4	9
5	Santa Clara	6	3	0	3	+0	+0.5	9
6	Boavista	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.5	9
7	Famalicao	6	2	2	2	+2	-2.4	8
8	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	+1	-1.7	8
9	Moreirense	7	2	0	5	-4	+3.0	6
10	Casa Pia	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.7	5
11	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-9	-5.5	4
12	Rio Ave	6	1	0	5	-12	-11.7	3
13	Nacional	6	0	2	4	-5	-0.5	2
14	AVS	5	0	2	3	-6	-1.6	2
15	Farense	6	0	2	4	-6	-8.5	2
16	Estoril	5	0	2	3	-6	-4.9	2
17	Gil Vicente	7	0	2	5	-13	-7.7	2
18	Estrela	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.