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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Benfica

T S S T S

3–1

Full-time

Sp Braga

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 70%

77%

63%

Points per game

2,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

63%

70%

Both score Ø 57%

47%

67%

Average goals

3,1

3,5

Scored

2,3

2,1

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,42 xG 1,00

62% Possession 38%

21 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 7

9 Blocked shots 0

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Benfica 2. · Sp Braga 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	30	26	2	2	+60	+38.2	80
2	Benfica	30	23	4	3	+44	+35.7	73
3	Porto	30	19	5	6	+31	+28.0	62
4	Sp Braga	30	19	5	6	+22	+20.9	62
5	Guimaraes	30	17	6	7	+13	+6.2	57
6	Arouca	31	13	6	12	+11	+1.9	45
7	Moreirense	30	12	7	11	-4	-1.4	43
8	Famalicao	30	8	12	10	-5	-10.6	36
9	Casa Pia	31	9	8	14	-11	-11.3	35
10	Rio Ave	31	5	17	9	-6	+0.8	32
11	Gil Vicente	31	8	8	15	-11	-10.9	32
12	Farense	30	8	7	15	-5	-9.7	31
13	Estoril	30	8	6	16	-7	-11.6	30
14	Boavista	30	7	9	14	-21	-17.5	30
15	Estrela	30	6	11	13	-14	-7.6	29
16	Portimonense	30	7	7	16	-30	-21.1	28
17	Chaves	31	5	8	18	-34	-18.1	23
18	Vizela	31	4	10	17	-33	-11.9	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	15	0	0	+40	+25.4	45
2	Benfica	15	13	2	0	+34	+26.3	41
3	Porto	15	10	3	2	+21	+22.8	33
4	Guimaraes	15	10	2	3	+13	+11.5	32
5	Sp Braga	15	9	3	3	+13	+19.9	30
6	Arouca	15	7	2	6	+2	+0.3	23
7	Estoril	15	7	1	7	+7	+0.3	22
8	Gil Vicente	16	5	7	4	+4	-5.4	22
9	Rio Ave	15	5	7	3	+4	+7.1	22
10	Moreirense	15	6	4	5	+0	+0.7	22
11	Famalicao	15	5	6	4	-1	-2.7	21
12	Farense	15	5	4	6	+2	+0.4	19
13	Estrela	15	5	3	7	-3	-1.8	18
14	Boavista	15	4	6	5	-9	-3.4	18
15	Casa Pia	16	3	5	8	-7	-4.4	14
16	Portimonense	15	3	5	7	-11	-9.5	14
17	Chaves	15	3	4	8	-12	-3.9	13
18	Vizela	16	2	5	9	-16	-0.3	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	11	2	2	+20	+12.9	35
2	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+10	+9.5	32
3	Sp Braga	15	10	2	3	+9	+1.0	32
4	Porto	15	9	2	4	+10	+5.2	29
5	Guimaraes	15	7	4	4	+0	-5.3	25
6	Arouca	16	6	4	6	+9	+1.6	22
7	Casa Pia	15	6	3	6	-4	-6.8	21
8	Moreirense	15	6	3	6	-4	-2.0	21
9	Famalicao	15	3	6	6	-4	-7.9	15
10	Portimonense	15	4	2	9	-19	-11.5	14
11	Farense	15	3	3	9	-7	-10.1	12
12	Boavista	15	3	3	9	-12	-14.1	12
13	Estrela	15	1	8	6	-11	-5.8	11
14	Vizela	15	2	5	8	-17	-11.7	11
15	Rio Ave	16	0	10	6	-10	-6.4	10
16	Gil Vicente	15	3	1	11	-15	-5.4	10
17	Chaves	16	2	4	10	-22	-14.2	10
18	Estoril	15	1	5	9	-14	-12.0	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.