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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Melo

Benfica

S T S S T

5–0

Full-time

Arouca

S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 58%

75%

41%

Points per game

2,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

63%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

5,28 xG 0,32

50% Possession 50%

17 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

6 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 2. · Arouca 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	33	28	3	2	+64	+43.3	87
2	Benfica	32	24	4	4	+44	+38.1	76
3	Sp Braga	33	21	5	7	+22	+19.7	68
4	Porto	32	20	6	6	+34	+29.8	66
5	Guimaraes	33	18	6	9	+12	+6.4	60
6	Moreirense	32	14	7	11	-1	+0.1	49
7	Arouca	32	13	7	12	+11	+2.3	46
8	Famalicao	33	10	12	11	-3	-10.1	42
9	Farense	33	10	7	16	-3	-10.4	37
10	Rio Ave	33	6	18	9	-5	-0.9	36
11	Gil Vicente	33	9	9	15	-9	-9.3	36
12	Casa Pia	32	9	8	15	-12	-11.2	35
13	Estoril	33	9	6	18	-8	-13.8	33
14	Boavista	32	7	10	15	-22	-17.8	31
15	Estrela	33	6	12	15	-21	-10.1	30
16	Portimonense	33	7	8	18	-35	-24.3	29
17	Vizela	33	5	10	18	-30	-10.7	25
18	Chaves	33	5	8	20	-38	-21.2	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	16	0	0	+43	+28.9	48
2	Benfica	16	14	2	0	+36	+27.7	44
3	Guimaraes	17	11	2	4	+13	+11.0	35
4	Porto	16	10	4	2	+21	+22.5	34
5	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+14	+19.9	33
6	Estoril	17	8	1	8	+7	-1.4	25
7	Gil Vicente	17	6	7	4	+6	-4.3	25
8	Rio Ave	16	6	7	3	+5	+6.4	25
9	Moreirense	16	7	4	5	+1	+1.6	25
10	Arouca	16	7	3	6	+2	+0.7	24
11	Famalicao	16	6	6	4	+1	-3.7	24
12	Farense	16	6	4	6	+3	+0.9	22
13	Boavista	16	4	7	5	-9	-3.9	19
14	Estrela	16	5	3	8	-6	-1.7	18
15	Portimonense	17	3	6	8	-13	-9.2	15
16	Casa Pia	16	3	5	8	-7	-4.4	14
17	Vizela	17	3	5	9	-12	+1.8	14
18	Chaves	17	3	4	10	-16	-7.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	12	3	2	+21	+14.4	39
2	Sp Braga	17	11	2	4	+8	-0.1	35
3	Porto	16	10	2	4	+13	+7.4	32
4	Benfica	16	10	2	4	+8	+10.4	32
5	Guimaraes	16	7	4	5	-1	-4.6	25
6	Moreirense	16	7	3	6	-2	-1.5	24
7	Arouca	16	6	4	6	+9	+1.6	22
8	Casa Pia	16	6	3	7	-5	-6.8	21
9	Famalicao	17	4	6	7	-4	-6.4	18
10	Farense	17	4	3	10	-6	-11.3	15
11	Portimonense	16	4	2	10	-22	-15.1	14
12	Boavista	16	3	3	10	-13	-13.9	12
13	Estrela	17	1	9	7	-15	-8.4	12
14	Rio Ave	17	0	11	6	-10	-7.3	11
15	Gil Vicente	16	3	2	11	-15	-5.0	11
16	Vizela	16	2	5	9	-18	-12.6	11
17	Chaves	16	2	4	10	-22	-14.2	10
18	Estoril	16	1	5	10	-15	-12.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.