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Primeira Liga
Referee: Tiago Martins
Casa Pia
U
0–1
Full-time
Benfica
T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Benfica
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
0%
83%
Points per game
1,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 17%
0%
33%
Average goals
0,0
2,8
Scored
0,0
2,3
Conceded
0,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,8
This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
0,0
4,0
Scored
0,0
4,0
Conceded
0,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+4,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

36% Possession 64%
8 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 9
0 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 9
6 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Casa Pia 11. · Benfica 3. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Braga 2 1 1 0 +3 4
2 Porto 1 1 0 0 +4 3
3 Benfica 1 1 0 0 +4 3
4 Estoril 1 1 0 0 +2 3
5 Boavista 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Gil Vicente 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Vizela 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Guimaraes 1 1 0 0 +1 3
9 Sp Lisbon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
10 Santa Clara 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Casa Pia 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 Portimonense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
13 Pacos Ferreira 1 0 0 1 -1 0
14 Rio Ave 1 0 0 1 -1 0
15 Chaves 1 0 0 1 -1 0
16 Maritimo 1 0 0 1 -4 0
17 Arouca 1 0 0 1 -4 0
18 Famalicao 2 0 0 2 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Casa Pia Benfica
Neto 🟨
7′
Saviour Godwin 🟨
27′
29′
🟨 Nicolás Otamendi
30′
🟨 Florentino Luís
Afonso Taira 🟨
31′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 A. Bah
↦ Gilberto
Takahiro Kunimoto 🟨
53′
58′
⚽ Gonçalo Ramos 0–1
60′
🔁 R. Yaremchuk
↦ Diogo Gonçalves
60′
🔁 J. Weigl
↦ Florentino
Vasco Fernandes 🟨
61′
Y. Eteki 🔁
↦ Neto
68′
Diogo Pinto 🔁
↦ T. Kunimoto
69′
Anderson 🔁
↦ S. Godwin
72′
Clayton 🔁
↦ Rafael Martins
72′
Cuca 🔁
↦ Afonso Taira
76′
81′
🔁 Henrique Araújo
↦ Gonçalo Ramos
89′
🔁 J. Vertonghen
↦ Álex Grimaldo
Anderson Cordeiro 🟨
91′
92′
🟨 Nicolás Otamendi
92′
🟥 Nicolás Otamendi
95′
🟨 Rafa Silva
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Casa Pia

5-4-1
33 Ricardo Batista G
42 Lucas Soares D
3 João Nunes D
13 Vasco Fernandes D
19 N. Zolotić D
5 Leonardo Lelo D
14 T. Kunimoto M
8 Neto M
27 Afonso Taira M
7 S. Godwin M
11 Rafael Martins F
Bench (9)
88 Y. Eteki
10 Diogo Pinto
70 Anderson
99 Clayton
16 Cuca
2 E. Fereira
6 Derick Poloni
44 Isaac Monteiro
68 Lucas Paes

Coach: Filipe Martins

Benfica

4-2-3-1
99 O. Vlachodimos G
2 Gilberto D
30 N. Otamendi D
91 Morato D
3 Álex Grimaldo D
13 E. Fernández M
61 Florentino M
17 Diogo Gonçalves M
27 Rafa M
20 João Mário M
88 Gonçalo Ramos F
Bench (9)
6 A. Bah
9 R. Yaremchuk
28 J. Weigl
39 Henrique Araújo
5 J. Vertonghen
55 Paulo Bernardo
22 Chiquinho
77 Helton Leite
33 P. Musa

Coach: R. Schmidt

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
12,96
🔒
U
5,96
🔒
B ✓
1,23
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
1,64
🔒
U2,5 ✓
2,24
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Tiago Martins · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,47 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.