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Primeira Liga
Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
Arouca
T T T T T
1–2
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
0%
83%
Points per game
0,0
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,8
Scored
0,5
2,2
Conceded
2,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
-2,3
+1,5
This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches
Win Ø 47%
31%
62%
Points per game
1,0
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
50%
54%
Both score Ø 50%
46%
54%
Average goals
2,5
2,9
Scored
0,9
1,9
Conceded
1,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

43% Possession 57%
5 Shots 9
1 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 0
4 Corners 3
0 Offside 3
30 Free kicks against 20
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Arouca 14. · Sp Lisbon 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 27 20 5 2 +43 65
2 Porto 27 19 7 1 +46 64
3 Sp Lisbon 26 16 6 4 +23 54
4 Guimaraes 27 13 8 6 +10 47
5 Sp Braga 26 13 7 6 +16 46
6 Maritimo 26 11 7 8 +2 40
7 Rio Ave 27 11 5 11 -3 38
8 Chaves 27 8 12 7 +1 36
9 Feirense 27 10 5 12 -15 35
10 Boavista 27 8 10 9 +1 34
11 Vitoria Setubal 27 9 7 11 +0 34
12 Belenenses 27 8 8 11 -9 32
13 Pacos Ferreira 27 6 9 12 -12 27
14 Arouca 26 8 3 15 -18 27
15 Estoril 27 6 7 14 -12 25
16 Moreirense 27 5 6 16 -18 21
17 Nacional 27 3 8 16 -27 17
18 Tondela 27 3 8 16 -28 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Arouca Sp Lisbon
1–0 Mateus
Vitor
9′
23′
🟨 Alan Ruiz
Vitor Costa 🟨
26′
34′
A. Ruiz 1–1
Gelson Martins
36′
Bruno César 1–2
M. Zeegelaar
Adilson Goiano 🟨
45′
Half-time 1–2
Kuca 🔁
↦ Sami
67′
70′
🔁 João Palhinha
↦ A. Ruiz
Nuno Valente 🔁
↦ Adilson Goiano
72′
77′
🔁 Daniel Podence
↦ B. Ruiz
Anderson Luis 🟨
80′
81′
🟨 Daniel Podence
88′
🟨 William Carvalho
Tómané 🔁
↦ Mateus
89′
90′
🟨 Rui Patrício
92′
🔁 Paulo Oliveira
↦ Gelson Martins
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Arouca

38 S. Bolat G
5 Anderson Luis D
33 Jubal D
6 Vitor D
7 Artur Moreira M
66 Nuno Coelho M
26 André Santos M
8 Adilson Goiano M
12 Mateus M
11 Sami F
95 Walter González F
Bench (7)
17 Kuca
10 Nuno Valente
16 Tómané
3 Hugo Basto
4 J. Velázquez
13 Rui Sacramento
50 Crivellaro

Sp Lisbon

4-1-4-1
1 Rui Patrício G
31 M. Zeegelaar D
13 S. Coates D
2 E. Schelotto D
11 Bruno César M
14 William Carvalho M
99 A. Ruiz M
35 Rúben Semedo D
10 B. Ruiz M
28 B. Dost F
77 Gelson Martins M
Bench (7)
66 João Palhinha
56 Daniel Podence
15 Paulo Oliveira
20 L. Castaignos
34 Beto
47 Ricardo Esgaio
73 Matheus Pereira

Coach: Jorge Jesus

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Luis Miguel Branco Godinho · 45 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
35,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.