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Europa League
Referee: Alejandro Hernández
Sp Lisbon
U S S S S
1–2
Full-time
Atalanta
T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Atalanta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,7
2,2
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
0,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
3,0
2,0
Scored
2,0
2,0
Conceded
1,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,02 xG 2,03
49% Possession 51%
15 Shots 13
3 Shots on target 5
6 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 7
0 Offside 4
10 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Sp Lisbon Atalanta
33′
⚽ G. Scalvini 0–1
43′
⚽ M. Ruggeri 0–2
Half-time 0–2
Geny Catamo 🔁
↦ Paulinho
46′
M. Edwards 🔁
↦ Nuno Santos
46′
S. Coates 🔁
↦ M. Hjulmand
46′
51′
🟨 Berat Djimsiti
54′
🔁 R. Tolói
↦ B. Djimsiti
54′
🔁 G. Scamacca
↦ C. De Ketelaere
60′
🟨 Rafael Tolói
66′
🔁 M. Pašalić
↦ Éderson
66′
🔁 E. Holm
↦ D. Zappacosta
Ricardo Esgaio 🔁
↦ Iván Fresneda
67′
Ousmane Diomande ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
74′
76′
🟨 Giorgio Scalvini
1–2 V. Gyökeres ⚽
76′
80′
🔁 J. Palomino
↦ G. Scalvini
Pedro Gonçalves 🟨
84′
Daniel Bragança 🔁
↦ Matheus Reis
91′
Daniel Bragança 🟨
92′
92′
🟨 Gianluca Scamacca
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

3-4-3
1 Adán G
26 O. Diomande D
25 Gonçalo Inácio D
2 Matheus Reis D
22 Iván Fresneda M
42 M. Hjulmand M
5 H. Morita M
11 Nuno Santos M
20 Paulinho F
9 V. Gyökeres F
8 Pote F
Bench (12)
21 Geny Catamo
10 M. Edwards
4 S. Coates
47 Ricardo Esgaio
23 Daniel Bragança
72 Eduardo Quaresma
91 Rodrigo Ribeiro
88 Tiago Ferreira
12 F. Israel
51 Diogo Pinto
13 Luís Neto
14 Dário Essugo

Coach: Rúben Amorim

Atalanta

3-4-1-2
1 J. Musso G
42 G. Scalvini D
19 B. Djimsiti D
23 S. Kolašinac D
77 D. Zappacosta M
15 M. de Roon M
13 Éderson M
22 M. Ruggeri M
7 T. Koopmeiners F
17 C. De Ketelaere F
11 A. Lookman F
Bench (12)
2 R. Tolói
90 G. Scamacca
8 M. Pašalić
3 E. Holm
6 J. Palomino
31 F. Rossi
59 Aleksey Miranchuk
33 H. Hateboer
29 M. Carnesecchi
25 M. Adopo
9 L. Muriel
20 M. Bakker

Coach: G. Gasperini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Alejandro Hernández · 223 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.