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Primeira Liga

Referee: Cláudio Pereira

Sp Lisbon

S S U S S

2–0

Full-time

Rio Ave

S T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

80%

20%

Points per game

2,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

60%

20%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,32 xG 0,60

53% Possession 47%

10 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 2

8 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Rio Ave 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	1	0	+5	+5.6	16
2	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+9	+6.4	15
3	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.8	13
4	Boavista	6	4	1	1	+5	-1.8	13
5	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+2	-3.6	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.9	10
7	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-1	-0.8	10
8	Casa Pia	6	2	3	1	+3	+0.8	9
9	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.0	7
10	Gil Vicente	6	2	0	4	+3	-3.2	6
11	Farense	6	2	0	4	+1	-1.0	6
12	Arouca	6	1	3	2	-1	+0.2	6
13	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.0	5
14	Vizela	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.8	5
15	Estrela	6	1	2	3	-3	-1.3	5
16	Portimonense	6	1	2	3	-9	-3.6	5
17	Estoril	6	1	1	4	-3	+1.6	4
18	Chaves	6	0	1	5	-13	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	+4.8	9
2	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.7	7
3	Porto	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.7	7
4	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+6	-1.6	6
6	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.1	6
7	Farense	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.9	6
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.0	6
9	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+2	+4.2	4
10	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.3	4
11	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
12	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.2	4
13	Vizela	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.5	4
14	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.1	3
15	Estrela	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.7	3
16	Casa Pia	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
17	Chaves	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.3	1
18	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.3	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.8	9
3	Casa Pia	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
4	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.3	6
5	Boavista	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.5	6
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
7	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.6	4
8	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.1	4
9	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.8	4
10	Portimonense	3	1	1	1	-4	-1.8	4
11	Arouca	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
12	Estrela	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.1	2
13	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.2	1
14	Vizela	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.3	1
15	Gil Vicente	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.6	0
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.9	0
17	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.3	0
18	Chaves	3	0	0	3	-10	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.