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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Sp Lisbon

U S U S T

1–1

Full-time

Arouca

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,3

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,8

0,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 56%

67%

44%

Points per game

2,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

70%

33%

Both score Ø 39%

41%

37%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

66% Possession 34%

26 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 2

10 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 0

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Arouca 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	28	23	2	3	+51	71
2	Porto	28	21	4	3	+41	67
3	Sp Braga	28	21	2	5	+37	65
4	Sp Lisbon	27	18	3	6	+30	57
5	Arouca	27	12	8	7	-1	44
6	Guimaraes	28	12	5	11	-6	41
7	Famalicao	28	12	3	13	-5	39
8	Casa Pia	28	11	6	11	-5	39
9	Vizela	27	11	5	11	+3	38
10	Chaves	28	9	9	10	-5	36
11	Rio Ave	28	9	8	11	-4	35
12	Boavista	27	9	6	12	-13	33
13	Gil Vicente	28	8	7	13	-7	31
14	Portimonense	28	9	3	16	-14	30
15	Estoril	28	7	4	17	-21	25
16	Maritimo	28	6	4	18	-27	22
17	Pacos Ferreira	28	4	5	19	-28	17
18	Santa Clara	28	3	6	19	-26	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	12	1	1	+31	37
2	Porto	14	12	0	2	+28	36
3	Sp Lisbon	13	11	0	2	+28	33
4	Sp Braga	14	10	2	2	+21	32
5	Guimaraes	14	8	3	3	+4	27
6	Arouca	14	8	2	4	+4	26
7	Famalicao	14	8	1	5	+4	25
8	Rio Ave	14	7	2	5	+4	23
9	Boavista	14	6	5	3	+0	23
10	Casa Pia	14	6	3	5	+2	21
11	Gil Vicente	14	4	6	4	+0	18
12	Portimonense	14	5	3	6	-2	18
13	Vizela	13	5	2	6	+1	17
14	Chaves	14	4	5	5	-1	17
15	Maritimo	14	5	2	7	-2	17
16	Estoril	14	4	2	8	-11	14
17	Santa Clara	14	2	4	8	-13	10
18	Pacos Ferreira	14	2	2	10	-16	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	11	1	2	+20	34
2	Sp Braga	14	11	0	3	+16	33
3	Porto	14	9	4	1	+13	31
4	Sp Lisbon	14	7	3	4	+2	24
5	Vizela	14	6	3	5	+2	21
6	Chaves	14	5	4	5	-4	19
7	Arouca	13	4	6	3	-5	18
8	Casa Pia	14	5	3	6	-7	18
9	Famalicao	14	4	2	8	-9	14
10	Guimaraes	14	4	2	8	-10	14
11	Gil Vicente	14	4	1	9	-7	13
12	Rio Ave	14	2	6	6	-8	12
13	Portimonense	14	4	0	10	-12	12
14	Estoril	14	3	2	9	-10	11
15	Boavista	13	3	1	9	-13	10
16	Pacos Ferreira	14	2	3	9	-12	9
17	Santa Clara	14	1	2	11	-13	5
18	Maritimo	14	1	2	11	-25	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.