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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luís Godinho

Farense

T S T S T

2–3

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Farense Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,47 xG 3,15

30% Possession 70%

9 Shots 23

4 Shots on target 10

0 Blocked shots 5

8 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 12

5 Yellow cards 6

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Farense 12. · Sp Lisbon 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+10	+7.5	18
2	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+8	+5.5	16
3	Porto	7	5	1	1	+4	+4.5	16
4	Boavista	7	4	2	1	+5	-2.1	14
5	Sp Braga	7	4	1	2	+5	+3.1	13
6	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+2	-3.2	12
7	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-1	-0.8	10
8	Casa Pia	6	2	3	1	+3	+0.8	9
9	Portimonense	7	2	2	3	-8	-3.2	8
10	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.0	7
11	Gil Vicente	6	2	0	4	+3	-3.2	6
12	Farense	6	2	0	4	+1	-1.0	6
13	Arouca	6	1	3	2	-1	+0.2	6
14	Rio Ave	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.8	5
15	Vizela	7	1	2	4	-4	-1.2	5
16	Estrela	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.5	5
17	Estoril	6	1	1	4	-3	+1.6	4
18	Chaves	6	0	1	5	-13	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.6	12
2	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.2	9
3	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.4	8
4	Porto	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.7	7
5	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
6	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+6	-1.6	6
7	Farense	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.9	6
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.0	6
9	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+2	+4.2	4
10	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.3	4
11	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
12	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.2	4
13	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.0	4
14	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.1	3
15	Estrela	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.5	3
16	Casa Pia	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
17	Chaves	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.3	1
18	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+3	-1.1	9
2	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.3	9
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.2	9
4	Casa Pia	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
5	Portimonense	4	2	1	1	-3	-1.4	7
6	Boavista	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.5	6
7	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.2	5
8	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
9	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.1	4
10	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.8	4
11	Arouca	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
12	Estrela	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.1	2
13	Vizela	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.3	1
14	Rio Ave	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.9	1
15	Gil Vicente	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.6	0
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.9	0
17	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.3	0
18	Chaves	3	0	0	3	-10	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.