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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Arouca

S T U U T

1–2

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

2,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 43%

14%

71%

Points per game

0,7

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

71%

29%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

2,0

0,4

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

43% Possession 57%

10 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 5

3 Offside 3

21 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 16. · Sp Lisbon 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	7	0	0	+15	21
2	Porto	8	6	2	0	+13	20
3	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+8	17
4	Estoril	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Sp Braga	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Portimonense	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	Guimaraes	8	2	4	2	+2	10
8	Boavista	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Pacos Ferreira	8	2	3	3	-3	9
10	Gil Vicente	7	2	2	3	+0	8
11	Vizela	8	1	5	2	-6	8
12	Maritimo	8	1	4	3	-3	7
13	Moreirense	8	1	4	3	-6	7
14	Tondela	7	2	0	5	-4	6
15	Santa Clara	8	1	3	4	-10	6
16	Arouca	7	1	2	4	-7	5
17	Belenenses	7	0	4	3	-5	4
18	Famalicao	8	0	3	5	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+5	8
5	Vizela	4	1	3	0	+1	6
6	Tondela	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
8	Santa Clara	4	1	2	1	-4	5
9	Guimaraes	4	1	1	2	+1	4
10	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Gil Vicente	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Maritimo	4	0	3	1	-2	3
17	Belenenses	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	-2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Estoril	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Sp Braga	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Porto	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Portimonense	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Guimaraes	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	1	2	-3	4
11	Moreirense	4	0	3	1	-5	3
12	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-4	2
13	Vizela	4	0	2	2	-7	2
14	Famalicao	4	0	1	3	-4	1
15	Boavista	3	0	1	2	-5	1
16	Arouca	4	0	1	3	-6	1
17	Santa Clara	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.